Palloni Alberto, Novak Beatriz, Pinto-Aguirre Guido
Alberto Palloni is with the Center for Demography and Health of Aging, University of Wisconsin, Madison. Beatriz Novak is with the Centro de Estudios Demográficos, Urbanos y Ambientales, El Colegio de México, Mexico City. Guido Pinto-Aguirre is with the Center for Demography and Ecology, University of Wisconsin.
Am J Public Health. 2015 Jun;105(6):1246-53. doi: 10.2105/AJPH.2014.302420. Epub 2015 Apr 16.
We estimated smoking-attributable mortality, assessed the impact of past smoking on recent mortality, and computed expected future losses in life expectancy caused by past and current smoking behavior in Latin America and the Caribbean.
We used a regression-based procedure to estimate smoking-attributable mortality and information for 6 countries (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Cuba, Mexico, and Uruguay) for the years 1980 through 2009 contained in the Latin American Mortality Database (LAMBdA). These countries jointly comprise more than two thirds of the adult population in Latin America and the Caribbean and have the region's highest rates of smoking prevalence.
During the last 10 years, the impact of smoking was equivalent to losses in male (aged ≥ 50 years) life expectancy of about 2 to 6 years. These effects are likely to increase, particularly for females, both in the study countries and in those that joined the epidemic at later dates.
Unless innovations in the detection and treatment of chronic diseases are introduced soon, continued gains in adult survival in Latin America and the Caribbean region may slow down considerably.
我们估算了吸烟导致的死亡率，评估了既往吸烟对近期死亡率的影响，并计算了拉丁美洲和加勒比地区过去及当前吸烟行为导致的预期未来预期寿命损失。
我们采用基于回归的程序来估算吸烟导致的死亡率，并利用了拉丁美洲死亡率数据库（LAMBdA）中1980年至2009年6个国家（阿根廷、巴西、智利、古巴、墨西哥和乌拉圭）的信息。这些国家的成年人口占拉丁美洲和加勒比地区成年人口总数的三分之二以上，且吸烟流行率在该地区最高。
在过去10年中，吸烟的影响相当于男性（年龄≥50岁）预期寿命损失约2至6年。在研究国家以及后来加入吸烟流行行列的国家，这些影响可能会增加，尤其是对女性而言。
除非尽快在慢性病的检测和治疗方面取得创新，否则拉丁美洲和加勒比地区成年人存活率的持续提高可能会大幅放缓。
