The enduring effects of smoking in Latin America.

OBJECTIVES

We estimated smoking-attributable mortality, assessed the impact of past smoking on recent mortality, and computed expected future losses in life expectancy caused by past and current smoking behavior in Latin America and the Caribbean.

METHODS

We used a regression-based procedure to estimate smoking-attributable mortality and information for 6 countries (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Cuba, Mexico, and Uruguay) for the years 1980 through 2009 contained in the Latin American Mortality Database (LAMBdA). These countries jointly comprise more than two thirds of the adult population in Latin America and the Caribbean and have the region's highest rates of smoking prevalence.

RESULTS

During the last 10 years, the impact of smoking was equivalent to losses in male (aged ≥ 50 years) life expectancy of about 2 to 6 years. These effects are likely to increase, particularly for females, both in the study countries and in those that joined the epidemic at later dates.

CONCLUSIONS

Unless innovations in the detection and treatment of chronic diseases are introduced soon, continued gains in adult survival in Latin America and the Caribbean region may slow down considerably.