Adult age differences in hindsight bias: The role of recall ability.

Hindsight bias, that is, the overestimation of one's prior knowledge of outcomes after the actual outcomes are known, is stronger in older than young adults (e.g., Bayen, Erdfelder, Bearden, & Lozito, 2006). The authors investigated whether age differences in the recall of original judgments account for this difference. Multinomial model-based analyses of data from a hindsight memory task revealed that biased reconstruction of original judgments was equally likely in both age groups when recall of original judgments was lowered in young adults via a manipulation of retention interval. These results support a recall-based explanation of age differences in hindsight bias.