Practical prognostic index for survival in patients with unresectable pancreatic cancer treated with gemcitabine or S-1.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: We performed this retrospective cohort study to identify prognostic factors for unresectable pancreatic cancer treated with current standard therapy using gemcitabine (GEM) or S-1 and to stratify patients prior to treatment using a prognostic index (PI).

METHODOLOGY

We analyzed 182 patients with unresectable pancreatic cancer, who had received GEM or S-1 as first-line chemotherapy. Factors that contributed to the prognosis were identified by univariate and multivariate analysis using a Cox proportional hazards model. The PI was constructed using the factors identified in the multivariate analysis.

RESULTS

By multivariate analysis, performance status (PS), stage, and absolute neutrophil count (ANC) were identified as factors that independently contributed to the prognosis of unresectable pancreatic cancer (P < 0.05). The hazard ratios were 1.69, 3.33, and 1.18, respectively. In addition, PI was calculated using these three factors. Patients were classified into three groups according to the PI values. A significant difference was observed among the survival curves of these three groups (P < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

We identified three prognostic factors in the population after the introduction of S-1, and have created a simple and useful PI. This index demonstrates the ability to accurately classify advanced pancreatic cancer patients before the start of treatment.