Cost-effectiveness of rotavirus vaccination in Kenya and Uganda.

INTRODUCTION

Rotavirus vaccines have the potential to prevent a substantial amount of life-threatening gastroenteritis in young African children. This paper presents the results of prospective cost-effectiveness analyses for rotavirus vaccine introduction for Kenya and Uganda.

METHODOLOGY

In each country, a national consultant worked with a national technical working group to identify appropriate data and validate study results. Secondary data on demographics, disease burden, health utilization, and costs were used to populate the TRIVAC cost-effectiveness model. The baseline analysis assumed an initial vaccine price of $0.20 per dose, corresponding to Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance stipulated copay for low-income countries. The incremental cost-effectiveness of a 2-dose rotavirus vaccination schedule was evaluated for 20 successive birth cohorts from the government perspective in both countries, and from the societal perspective in Uganda.

RESULTS

Between 2014 and 2033, rotavirus vaccination can avert approximately 60,935 and 216,454 undiscounted deaths and hospital admissions respectively in children under 5 years in Kenya. In Uganda, the respective number of undiscounted deaths and hospital admission averted is 70,236 and 329,779 between 2016 and 2035. Over the 20-year period, the discounted vaccine program costs are around US$ 80 million in Kenya and US$ 60 million in Uganda. Discounted government health service costs avoided are US$ 30 million in Kenya and US$ 10 million in Uganda (or US$ 18 million including household costs). The cost per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted from a government perspective is US$ 38 in Kenya and US$ 34 in Uganda (US$ 29 from a societal perspective).

CONCLUSIONS

Rotavirus vaccine introduction is highly cost-effective in both countries in a range of plausible 'what-if' scenarios. The involvement of national experts improves the quality of data used, is likely to increase acceptability of the results in decision-making, and can contribute to strengthened national capacity to undertake economic evaluations.