澳大利亚验光服务的供需情况：2011 - 2036年

Optometric supply and demand in Australia: 2011-2036.

作者信息

Healy Ernest, Kiely Patricia M, Arunachalam Dharma

机构信息

Centre for Population and Urban Research, Monash University, Clayton, Victoria, Australia.

Optometry Australia, Melbourne, Australia.

出版信息

Clin Exp Optom. 2015 May;98(3):273-82. doi: 10.1111/cxo.12289.

DOI:10.1111/cxo.12289

PMID:25963116

Abstract

BACKGROUND

The effective size of the optometric workforce is dependent on graduate numbers, retention rates and immigration and is influenced by age, gender and working hours of optometrists. This paper presents modelling results of the relationship between the projected Australian optometric workforce and projected demand for optometric services for the period 2011 to 2036. Nine hypothetical optometric supply-side and demand-side scenarios are presented.

METHODS

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics on age and gender of people listing optometry as their major qualification in the 2011 census were projected over a 25-year period, accounting for factors such as concordance with Health Workforce Australia figures for registered optometrists in Australia in 2011, ageing, attrition, hours worked, new graduates and immigration. Data were compared to the numbers of optometrists calculated as necessary to meet the demand for services of the Australian population to 2036 using nine different scenarios.

RESULTS

It was estimated that there would be a surplus of over 1,200 equivalent full-time optometrists (EFTO) in 2036 for the highest service demand scenario of 13.8 million Medicare services, where 21 hours of a 38-hour week per EFTO were allowed for the provision of optometric services under Medicare. Substantial surpluses were predicted in all states and territories except Queensland, Tasmania and the Northern Territory where predicted supply was within six EFTO of predicted demand.

CONCLUSIONS

Projections using current weightings for mortality, attrition, proportion of optometrists in active practice, working hours, immigration, new graduates and 21 hours per EFTO per week available for Medicare services indicate that in 2036, there will be excess optometrists in relation to projected demand for services, if service utilisation is maintained at current levels or increased by 10 or 20 per cent. Substantially greater excesses result if each EFTO has 28 or 35 hours per week available for Medicare services.

摘要

背景

验光师劳动力的有效规模取决于毕业生数量、留用率和移民情况，并受验光师的年龄、性别和工作时长影响。本文展示了2011年至2036年期间澳大利亚验光师劳动力预测数量与验光服务预测需求之间关系的建模结果。呈现了九种假设的验光供应侧和需求侧情景。

方法

澳大利亚统计局关于在2011年人口普查中将验光列为主要资格的人员年龄和性别的数据在25年期间进行了预测，考虑了诸如与2011年澳大利亚注册验光师的澳大利亚卫生人力数据的一致性、老龄化、人员流失、工作时长、新毕业生和移民等因素。将这些数据与使用九种不同情景计算得出的到2036年满足澳大利亚人口服务需求所需的验光师数量进行了比较。

结果

据估计，在2036年，对于最高服务需求情景（1380万份医疗保险服务），将有超过1200名等效全职验光师（EFTO）过剩，在此情景下，每名EFTO每周38小时中有21小时用于根据医疗保险提供验光服务。除昆士兰州、塔斯马尼亚州和北领地外，所有州和领地预计都将出现大量过剩，在这些地区预计供应与预计需求相差在6名EFTO以内。

结论

使用当前关于死亡率、人员流失、在职验光师比例、工作时长、移民、新毕业生以及每名EFTO每周可用于医疗保险服务的21小时的权重进行的预测表明，到2036年，如果服务利用率维持在当前水平或提高10%或20%，相对于预计的服务需求，验光师将出现过剩。如果每名EFTO每周有28或35小时可用于医疗保险服务，过剩情况将大幅增加。