Kiely Patricia M, Healy Ernest, Horton Peregrine, Chakman Joseph
Optometrists Association Australia, Melbourne, Australia.
Clin Exp Optom. 2008 Jul;91(4):341-52. doi: 10.1111/j.1444-0938.2007.00233.x.
Major influences on health workforce supply include factors such as graduate numbers, retention rates and immigration. This report presents a model of the relationship of the projected Australian optometric workforce and projected optometric service demand for the period 2001 to 2031. Two contrasting hypothetical optometric supply-side scenarios are presented.
Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics on age and gender of people listing optometry as their major qualification in the 2001 census were projected over a 30-year period, accounting for factors such as ageing, attrition, new graduates and migration. Data were compared to the numbers of optometrists calculated as necessary to meet the demand for services of the Australian population to 2031.
The projections indicated that in 2031, there would be 4,072 equivalent full-time optometrists, an excess of 6.9 per cent compared with demand and that of these 38 per cent would be female. Application of a 'high' growth scenario, based on increases in the proportion of optometrists in active practice, working hours by females and graduate and immigrant numbers, resulted in a projected oversupply of up to 30 per cent. Use of a 'low' growth scenario, based on decreases in the proportion of optometrists in active practice, working hours, graduate and immigrant numbers, resulted in a projected undersupply of at least 21.5 per cent.
Projected numbers of optometrists using current weightings for mortality, attrition, proportion of optometrists in active practice, working hours, immigration and new graduates indicate that in 2031, there will be adequate numbers of optometrists to meet the demand for services, if service utilisation is maintained at current levels or increased slightly. The adequacy of projected numbers varies considerably if alterations are made to the weighting factors using 'high' and 'low' growth scenarios.
对卫生人力供应的主要影响因素包括毕业生数量、留用率和移民等。本报告呈现了2001年至2031年澳大利亚验光师人力预测与验光服务需求预测之间的关系模型。提出了两种截然不同的假设验光供应方情景。
澳大利亚统计局关于在2001年人口普查中将验光作为主要资格的人员年龄和性别的数据，在30年期间进行了预测，同时考虑了老龄化、人员损耗、新毕业生和移民等因素。将这些数据与为满足到2031年澳大利亚人口服务需求而计算出的验光师数量进行了比较。
预测表明，到2031年，将有4072名全职等效验光师，比需求多出6.9%，其中38%为女性。基于在职验光师比例增加、女性工作时长增加以及毕业生和移民数量增加的“高”增长情景预测，供应过剩高达30%。基于在职验光师比例下降、工作时长、毕业生和移民数量下降的“低”增长情景预测，供应短缺至少21.5%。
使用当前死亡率、人员损耗、在职验光师比例、工作时长、移民和新毕业生权重预测的验光师数量表明，如果服务利用率维持在当前水平或略有提高，到2031年将有足够数量的验光师满足服务需求。如果使用“高”和“低”增长情景改变权重因素，预测数量的充足程度会有很大差异。
