White A J, Doksum T, White C
Abt Associates, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA.
Optometry. 2000 May;71(5):284-300.
A 1995 workforce study conducted by RAND estimated a large current surplus of eye care providers in the United States. Due to data limitations of the RAND study and the outdated optometric workforce information available, the American Optometric Association contracted with Abt Associates to conduct a study to project future workforce requirements for optometry.
We collected extensive data on both the supply (work hours, retirement rates, new entrants) and demand (patient encounters and associated time requirements) of optometrists. These data were collected from a survey using stratified random sampling of 1,100 practicing optometrists and were used to develop workforce projections for optometry through the year 2030. Projections were calculated using a forecasting tool that can be used to derive workforce and training requirements under a range of future scenarios.
Workforce projections suggest an excess supply of optometrists is likely over the next 20 years. Over the next five years, approximately 550 optometrists are expected to retire each year, while more than 1,100 optometrists enter practice annually. Patient encounter volume is projected to increase steadily, but the effects of this increase are largely offset by an anticipated decrease in optometrist time requirements for routine eye examinations.
To reduce the size of the anticipated excess supply, optometry may want to focus on ways that demand can be increased. One way to increase demand is through greater convergence between the actual demand for eye care services and the underlying public health need for eye care.
兰德公司1995年进行的一项劳动力研究估计，美国目前眼科护理人员大量过剩。由于兰德研究的数据局限性以及现有的过时验光师劳动力信息，美国验光协会与阿布特咨询公司签约进行一项研究，以预测验光行业未来的劳动力需求。
我们收集了关于验光师供应（工作时长、退休率、新入职人员）和需求（患者诊疗次数及相关时间需求）的广泛数据。这些数据通过对1100名执业验光师进行分层随机抽样调查收集而来，并用于制定到2030年验光行业的劳动力预测。预测使用了一种预测工具，该工具可用于推导一系列未来情景下的劳动力和培训需求。
劳动力预测表明，未来20年验光师可能供应过剩。在接下来的五年里，预计每年约有550名验光师退休，而每年有超过1100名验光师进入该行业。预计患者诊疗量将稳步增加，但这种增加的影响在很大程度上被验光师进行常规眼部检查所需时间的预期减少所抵消。
为了减少预期的过剩供应规模，验光行业可能需要关注增加需求的方法。增加需求的一种方法是使眼部护理服务的实际需求与潜在的公共卫生眼部护理需求之间实现更大程度的趋同。
