Department of Sports Medicine, Norwegian School of Sports Sciences, Oslo, Norway Oslo Center of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, Research Support Services, Oslo University Hospital, Oslo, Norway.
Department of Sports Medicine, Norwegian School of Sports Sciences, Oslo, Norway.
Br J Sports Med. 2015 Jun;49(11):743-8. doi: 10.1136/bjsports-2014-094522.
Physical activity (PA) at leisure by the elderly, and its relationship to cardiovascular (CV) and non-CV mortality, with and without competing risk, has been scarcely described. We determined the relationships between PA, smoking and 12-year CV, non-CV and all-cause mortality in elderly Oslo men screened for CV disease in 1972-1973 and 2000.
Among 14,846 men born during 1923-1932 and participating in 1972-1973, there were 5738 participants in 2000. During the 12 years follow-up 2154 died. Cox regression modelling of mortality endpoints, with and without competing risk, was applied analysing PA variables hours per week of light or vigorous PA intensity and degree of PA at leisure. Comparisons of predictive ability between PA and smoking were done by receiver operating characteristics.
Thirty minutes of PA per 6 days a week was associated with about 40% mortality risk reduction. There was a 5 years increased lifetime when comparing sedentary and moderate to vigorous physically active men. Associations to CV or non-CV mortality were slightly weakened, allowing competing risk. Conditional on the prevalence of smoking and PA, the degree of PA at leisure was almost as predictive as smoking with regard to the effects on mortality. Increase in PA was as beneficial as smoking cessation in reducing mortality.
Even at the age of 73 years, PA is associated highly with mortality between groups of sedentary and active persons. Allowing for competing risk did not weaken these associations markedly. Public health strategies in elderly men should include efforts to increase PA in line with efforts to reduce smoking behaviour.
老年人的休闲体力活动（PA）及其与心血管（CV）和非 CV 死亡率的关系，包括有无竞争风险，鲜有描述。我们确定了在 1972-1973 年和 2000 年对心血管疾病进行筛查的老年奥斯陆男性中，PA、吸烟与 12 年 CV、非 CV 和全因死亡率之间的关系。
在 1923-1932 年出生并参加 1972-1973 年筛查的 14846 名男性中，有 5738 名参加了 2000 年的研究。在 12 年的随访中，有 2154 人死亡。应用 Cox 回归模型分析死亡率终点，包括有无竞争风险，分析休闲时 PA 变量（轻或剧烈 PA 强度的每周小时数和 PA 程度）。通过接受者操作特征比较 PA 和吸烟的预测能力。
每周 6 天进行 30 分钟的 PA，可降低约 40%的死亡风险。与久坐不动和适度至剧烈体力活动的男性相比，可延长 5 年的寿命。CV 或非 CV 死亡率的关联在允许竞争风险后略有减弱。在考虑吸烟和 PA 的流行程度的情况下，休闲时 PA 的程度几乎与吸烟一样具有预测死亡率的作用。增加 PA 与戒烟一样有助于降低死亡率。
即使在 73 岁时，PA 与久坐不动和活跃人群之间的死亡率高度相关。允许竞争风险不会显著削弱这些关联。老年男性的公共卫生策略应包括努力增加 PA，同时努力减少吸烟行为。
