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通过基于主体的建模重新审视莫菲特的犯罪理论。

Re-Examining of Moffitt's Theory of Delinquency through Agent Based Modeling.

作者信息

Leaw Jia Ning, Ang Rebecca P, Huan Vivien S, Chan Wei Teng, Cheong Siew Ann

机构信息

Psychological Studies Academic Group, National Institute of Education, Nanyang Technological University, 1 Nanyang Walk, Singapore 637616.

Division of Physics and Applied Physics, School of Physical and Mathematical Sciences, Nanyang Technological University, 21 Nanyang Link, Singapore 637371; Complexity Institute, Nanyang Technological University, 60 Nanyang View, Singapore 639673.

出版信息

PLoS One. 2015 Jun 10;10(6):e0126752. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0126752. eCollection 2015.

Abstract

Moffitt's theory of delinquency suggests that at-risk youths can be divided into two groups, the adolescence- limited group and the life-course-persistent group, predetermined at a young age, and social interactions between these two groups become important during the adolescent years. We built an agent-based model based on the microscopic interactions Moffitt described: (i) a maturity gap that dictates (ii) the cost and reward of antisocial behavior, and (iii) agents imitating the antisocial behaviors of others more successful than themselves, to find indeed the two groups emerging in our simulations. Moreover, through an intervention simulation where we moved selected agents from one social network to another, we also found that the social network plays an important role in shaping the life course outcome.

摘要

莫菲特的犯罪理论表明,高危青少年可分为两组,即青春期有限组和终生持续组,这两组在年轻时就已预先确定,并且这两组之间的社会互动在青少年时期变得很重要。我们基于莫菲特所描述的微观互动构建了一个基于主体的模型:(i)一个成熟度差距,它决定了(ii)反社会行为的成本和回报,以及(iii)主体模仿比自己更成功的他人的反社会行为,从而发现在我们的模拟中确实出现了这两组。此外,通过一个干预模拟,我们将选定的主体从一个社交网络转移到另一个社交网络,我们还发现社交网络在塑造人生历程结果方面起着重要作用。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/0388/4465023/5a3dbc2d6428/pone.0126752.g001.jpg

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