Marzocchi W, Melini D
INGV Rome, Italy.
Geophys Res Lett. 2014 Dec 16;41(23):8294-8300. doi: 10.1002/2014GL061718. Epub 2014 Dec 11.
Space-time clustering is the most striking departure of large earthquakes occurrence process from randomness. These clusters are usually described ex-post by a physics-based model in which earthquakes are triggered by Coulomb stress changes induced by other surrounding earthquakes. Notwithstanding the popularity of this kind of modeling, its ex-ante skill in terms of earthquake predictability gain is still unknown. Here we show that even in synthetic systems that are rooted on the physics of fault interaction using the Coulomb stress changes, such a kind of modeling often does not increase significantly earthquake predictability. Earthquake predictability of a fault may increase only when the Coulomb stress change induced by a nearby earthquake is much larger than the stress changes caused by earthquakes on other faults and by the intrinsic variability of the earthquake occurrence process.
时空聚类是大地震发生过程中最显著偏离随机性的特征。这些聚类通常事后用基于物理的模型来描述，在该模型中，地震由周围其他地震引起的库仑应力变化触发。尽管这种建模很流行，但其在地震可预测性提升方面的事前技能仍然未知。在这里我们表明，即使在基于断层相互作用物理原理并利用库仑应力变化的合成系统中，这种建模通常也不会显著提高地震可预测性。只有当附近地震引起的库仑应力变化远大于其他断层上的地震以及地震发生过程的固有变异性所引起的应力变化时，断层的地震可预测性才可能增加。
