通过生物地球化学过程建模推导森林火灾点火风险。
Deriving forest fire ignition risk with biogeochemical process modelling.
作者信息
Eastaugh C S, Hasenauer H
机构信息
Institute of Silviculture, Department of Forest and Soil Sciences, Universität für Bodenkultur, Peter-Jordan Str. 82, A-1190 Wien, Austria ; School of Environment, Science and Engineering, Southern Cross University, PO Box 157, Lismore, NSW 2480, Australia.
Institute of Silviculture, Department of Forest and Soil Sciences, Universität für Bodenkultur, Peter-Jordan Str. 82, A-1190 Wien, Austria.
出版信息
Environ Model Softw. 2014 May;55:132-142. doi: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2014.01.018.
Climate impacts the growth of trees and also affects disturbance regimes such as wildfire frequency. The European Alps have warmed considerably over the past half-century, but incomplete records make it difficult to definitively link alpine wildfire to climate change. Complicating this is the influence of forest composition and fuel loading on fire ignition risk, which is not considered by purely meteorological risk indices. Biogeochemical forest growth models track several variables that may be used as proxies for fire ignition risk. This study assesses the usefulness of the ecophysiological model BIOME-BGC's 'soil water' and 'labile litter carbon' variables in predicting fire ignition. A brief application case examines historic fire occurrence trends over pre-defined regions of Austria from 1960 to 2008. Results show that summer fire ignition risk is largely a function of low soil moisture, while winter fire ignitions are linked to the mass of volatile litter and atmospheric dryness.
气候影响树木生长，也会影响诸如野火发生频率等干扰机制。在过去的半个世纪里，欧洲阿尔卑斯山气温显著上升，但记录不完整使得难以确切地将高山野火与气候变化联系起来。森林组成和燃料载量对火灾点火风险的影响使情况变得复杂，而纯粹的气象风险指数并未考虑这一点。生物地球化学森林生长模型追踪几个可作为火灾点火风险代理指标的变量。本研究评估了生态生理模型BIOME - BGC的“土壤水分”和“不稳定凋落物碳”变量在预测火灾点火方面的有用性。一个简短的应用案例考察了1960年至2008年奥地利预定义区域的历史火灾发生趋势。结果表明，夏季火灾点火风险在很大程度上取决于土壤湿度低，而冬季火灾点火则与挥发性凋落物质量和大气干燥度有关。
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