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如何改进决策?

How Can Decision Making Be Improved?

机构信息

University of Pennsylvania

New York University.

出版信息

Perspect Psychol Sci. 2009 Jul;4(4):379-83. doi: 10.1111/j.1745-6924.2009.01142.x.

Abstract

The optimal moment to address the question of how to improve human decision making has arrived. Thanks to 50 years of research by judgment and decision-making scholars, psychologists have developed a detailed picture of the ways in which human judgment is bounded. This article argues that the time has come to focus attention on the search for strategies that will improve bounded judgment because decision-making errors are costly and are growing more costly, decision makers are receptive, and academic insights are sure to follow from research on improvement. In addition to calling for research on improvement strategies, this article organizes the existing literature pertaining to improvement strategies and highlights promising directions for future research.

摘要

现在正是探讨如何改善人类决策这一问题的最佳时机。得益于过去 50 年判断与决策领域学者的研究,心理学家已经详细描绘出人类判断受限的各种方式。本文认为,现在应该把注意力集中到寻找改善受限判断的策略上,因为决策失误代价高昂,而且还在变得更加高昂,决策者也乐于接受,并且从改善相关研究中必然会产生学术洞见。本文除了呼吁开展改善策略研究之外,还对现有的改善策略文献进行了梳理,并重点指出了未来研究的一些有前景的方向。

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