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贝叶斯统计与经典统计:你站在哪一边?

Bayesian Versus Orthodox Statistics: Which Side Are You On?

机构信息

School of Psychology, University of Sussex, Brighton, United Kingdom

出版信息

Perspect Psychol Sci. 2011 May;6(3):274-90. doi: 10.1177/1745691611406920.


DOI:10.1177/1745691611406920
PMID:26168518
Abstract

Researchers are often confused about what can be inferred from significance tests. One problem occurs when people apply Bayesian intuitions to significance testing-two approaches that must be firmly separated. This article presents some common situations in which the approaches come to different conclusions; you can see where your intuitions initially lie. The situations include multiple testing, deciding when to stop running participants, and when a theory was thought of relative to finding out results. The interpretation of nonsignificant results has also been persistently problematic in a way that Bayesian inference can clarify. The Bayesian and orthodox approaches are placed in the context of different notions of rationality, and I accuse myself and others as having been irrational in the way we have been using statistics on a key notion of rationality. The reader is shown how to apply Bayesian inference in practice, using free online software, to allow more coherent inferences from data.

摘要

研究人员常常对从显著性检验中可以得出什么结论感到困惑。当人们将贝叶斯直觉应用于显著性检验时,就会出现一个问题——这两种方法必须严格分开。本文介绍了一些常见的情况,在这些情况下,这两种方法得出了不同的结论;你可以看到你的直觉最初偏向哪一方。这些情况包括多重检验、决定何时停止招募参与者,以及何时相对于发现结果来考虑理论。非显著性结果的解释也一直存在问题,而贝叶斯推断可以澄清这一点。贝叶斯方法和传统方法被置于不同合理性概念的背景下,我指责自己和其他人在我们使用统计学来理解理性的一个关键概念时一直存在不合理性。读者将了解如何在实践中应用贝叶斯推断,使用免费的在线软件,以便从数据中得出更一致的推断。

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