Jolly W Matt, Cochrane Mark A, Freeborn Patrick H, Holden Zachary A, Brown Timothy J, Williamson Grant J, Bowman David M J S
US Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Fire Sciences Laboratory, 5775 Highway 10 West, Missoula, Montana 59803, USA.
Geospatial Sciences Center of Excellence (GSCE), South Dakota State University, 1021 Medary Avenue, Wecota Hall, Box 506B, Brookings, South Dakota 57007, USA.
Nat Commun. 2015 Jul 14;6:7537. doi: 10.1038/ncomms8537.
Climate strongly influences global wildfire activity, and recent wildfire surges may signal fire weather-induced pyrogeographic shifts. Here we use three daily global climate data sets and three fire danger indices to develop a simple annual metric of fire weather season length, and map spatio-temporal trends from 1979 to 2013. We show that fire weather seasons have lengthened across 29.6 million km(2) (25.3%) of the Earth's vegetated surface, resulting in an 18.7% increase in global mean fire weather season length. We also show a doubling (108.1% increase) of global burnable area affected by long fire weather seasons (>1.0 σ above the historical mean) and an increased global frequency of long fire weather seasons across 62.4 million km(2) (53.4%) during the second half of the study period. If these fire weather changes are coupled with ignition sources and available fuel, they could markedly impact global ecosystems, societies, economies and climate.
气候对全球野火活动有强烈影响，近期野火激增可能预示着火灾天气引发的火地理变化。在此，我们使用三个每日全球气候数据集和三个火灾危险指数，制定了一个简单的火灾天气季节长度年度指标，并绘制了1979年至2013年的时空趋势图。我们发现，在地球植被覆盖表面的2960万平方千米（占25.3%）范围内，火灾天气季节已经延长，导致全球平均火灾天气季节长度增加了18.7%。我们还发现，受长火灾天气季节（高于历史平均值1.0个标准差以上）影响的全球可燃烧面积增加了一倍（增长108.1%），并且在研究期后半段，长火灾天气季节的全球发生频率在6240万平方千米（占53.4%）的范围内有所增加。如果这些火灾天气变化与火源和可用燃料相结合，它们可能会对全球生态系统、社会、经济和气候产生显著影响。
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