CRETUS Institute, Nonlinear Physics Group, Faculty of Physics, Universidade de Santiago de Compostela, Galicia, Spain.
Nat Commun. 2022 Mar 8;13(1):1208. doi: 10.1038/s41467-022-28835-2.
Global warming is expected to alter wildfire potential and fire season severity, but the magnitude and location of change is still unclear. Here, we show that climate largely determines present fire-prone regions and their fire season. We categorize these regions according to the climatic characteristics of their fire season into four classes, within general Boreal, Temperate, Tropical and Arid climate zones. Based on climate model projections, we assess the modification of the fire-prone regions in extent and fire season length at the end of the 21st century. We find that due to global warming, the global area with frequent fire-prone conditions would increase by 29%, mostly in Boreal (+111%) and Temperate (+25%) zones, where there may also be a significant lengthening of the potential fire season. Our estimates of the global expansion of fire-prone areas highlight the large but uneven impact of a warming climate on Earth's environment.
全球变暖预计会改变野火发生的可能性和严重程度，但变化的幅度和位置仍不清楚。在这里，我们表明气候在很大程度上决定了当前易发生火灾的地区及其火灾季节。我们根据火灾季节的气候特征将这些地区分为四类，分别属于北方、温带、热带和干旱气候带。根据气候模型的预测，我们评估了 21 世纪末易发生火灾地区的范围和火灾季节长度的变化。我们发现，由于全球变暖，易发生火灾的地区将增加 29%，主要集中在北方（+111%）和温带（+25%）地区，这些地区的潜在火灾季节也可能显著延长。我们对易发生火灾地区在全球范围内扩大的估计突显了气候变暖对地球环境的影响很大，但分布不均。
