Potapov Peter, Tyukavina Alexandra, Turubanova Svetlana, Hansen Matthew C, Giglio Louis, Hernandez-Serna Andres, Lima André, Harris Nancy, Stolle Fred
Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20740.
World Resources Institute, Washington, DC 20002.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2025 Jul 29;122(30):e2505418122. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2505418122. Epub 2025 Jul 21.
Global forests provide key ecosystem services, from climate regulation to biodiversity habitat, but are under increasing pressure from the combined impacts of climate and land use change. Here, we show that forest disturbance due to fire is growing globally, with the most dramatic increases in intact forest landscapes, highlighting an existential threat to remaining high biomass, high biodiversity forests. The global annual area of forest disturbance due to fire for 2023 and 2024 was highest since the beginning of monitoring in 2001. Compared to 2002-2022 average annual forest disturbance due to fire, the 2023-2024 average was 2.2 times higher globally and 3 times higher in the Tropics. More than ¼ of all 2024 forest disturbance from fire occurred in tropical forests. We found a statistically significant increasing trend of forest disturbance due to fire from 2002 to 2024 in all climate domains except Subtropical. High forest, low deforestation tropical countries were not exempt, with Guyana and the Republic of the Congo experiencing record forest disturbance due to fire. Our results agree with recently estimated increases in global forest fire emissions and active fire detections. The unprecedented scale of fires in the world's most remote forests is a potential harbinger of ecosystem tipping points. Protecting these remaining unfragmented high conservation value forests from this threat poses a daunting and as yet undeveloped policy and capacity challenge.
全球森林提供关键的生态系统服务,从气候调节到生物多样性栖息地,但正面临来自气候和土地利用变化综合影响的日益增加的压力。在这里,我们表明,火灾导致的森林干扰在全球范围内正在增加,在完整的森林景观中增加最为显著,凸显了对剩余高生物量、高生物多样性森林的生存威胁。2023年和2024年全球因火灾导致的森林干扰年面积是2001年开始监测以来最高的。与2002 - 2022年因火灾导致的年均森林干扰相比,2023 - 2024年全球平均水平高出2.2倍,热带地区高出3倍。2024年所有因火灾导致的森林干扰中,超过四分之一发生在热带森林。我们发现,除亚热带外,2002年至2024年所有气候区域因火灾导致的森林干扰都有统计学上显著的增加趋势。森林覆盖率高、森林砍伐率低的热带国家也未能幸免,圭亚那和刚果共和国因火灾导致的森林干扰创下纪录。我们的结果与最近估计的全球森林火灾排放量增加和活跃火灾探测结果一致。世界上最偏远森林中前所未有的火灾规模可能是生态系统临界点的一个预兆。保护这些剩余的未破碎的高保护价值森林免受这一威胁,带来了一项艰巨且尚未得到充分发展的政策和能力挑战。