2015年德国有利于汉坦病毒爆发的环境条件？
Environmental conditions in favour of a hantavirus outbreak in 2015 in Germany?
作者信息
Reil D, Imholt C, Drewes S, Ulrich R G, Eccard J A, Jacob J
机构信息
Julius Kühn-Institute, Institute for Plant Protection in Horticulture and Forests, Münster, Germany.
University of Potsdam, Institute of Biochemistry and Biology, Potsdam, Germany.
出版信息
Zoonoses Public Health. 2016 Mar;63(2):83-8. doi: 10.1111/zph.12217. Epub 2015 Jul 15.
Bank voles can harbour Puumala virus (PUUV) and vole populations usually peak in years after beech mast. A beech mast occurred in 2014 and a predictive model indicates high vole abundance in 2015. This pattern is similar to the years 2009/2011 when beech mast occurred, bank voles multiplied and human PUUV infections increased a year later. Given similar environmental conditions in 2014/2015, increased risk of human PUUV infections in 2015 is likely. Risk management measures are recommended.
小林姬鼠可携带普马拉病毒（PUUV），而小林姬鼠种群数量通常在山毛榉结实大年之后的年份达到峰值。2014年出现了山毛榉结实大年，一个预测模型显示2015年小林姬鼠数量会很多。这种模式与2009/2011年山毛榉结实大年时相似，当时小林姬鼠数量增加，一年后人类感染普马拉病毒的病例也增多了。鉴于2014/2015年环境条件相似，2015年人类感染普马拉病毒的风险很可能增加。建议采取风险管理措施。
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