Thomas Bernadette, Wulf Sarah, Bikbov Boris, Perico Norberto, Cortinovis Monica, Courville de Vaccaro Karen, Flaxman Abraham, Peterson Hannah, Delossantos Allyne, Haring Diana, Mehrotra Rajnish, Himmelfarb Jonathan, Remuzzi Giuseppe, Murray Christopher, Naghavi Mohsen
Kidney Research Institute and Division of Nephrology, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington; Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington;
Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington;
J Am Soc Nephrol. 2015 Nov;26(11):2621-33. doi: 10.1681/ASN.2014101017. Epub 2015 Jul 24.
Rapidly rising global rates of chronic diseases portend a consequent rise in ESRD. Despite this, kidney disease is not included in the list of noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) targeted by the United Nations for 25% reduction by year 2025. In an effort to accurately report the trajectory and pattern of global growth of maintenance dialysis, we present the change in prevalence and incidence from 1990 to 2010. Data were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease 2010 epidemiologic database. The results are on the basis of an analysis of data from worldwide national and regional renal disease registries and detailed systematic literature review for years 1980-2010. Incidence and prevalence estimates of provision of maintenance dialysis from this database were updated using a negative binomial Bayesian meta-regression tool for 187 countries. Results indicate substantial growth in utilization of maintenance dialysis in almost all world regions. Changes in population structure, changes in aging, and the worldwide increase in diabetes mellitus and hypertension explain a significant portion, but not all, of the increase because increased dialysis provision also accounts for a portion of the rise. These findings argue for the importance of inclusion of kidney disease among NCD targets for reducing premature death throughout the world.
全球慢性病发病率的迅速上升预示着终末期肾病(ESRD)也会随之增加。尽管如此,肾脏疾病并未被列入联合国设定的到2025年将发病率降低25%的非传染性疾病(NCDs)清单中。为了准确报告维持性透析全球增长的轨迹和模式,我们展示了1990年至2010年患病率和发病率的变化。数据取自《2010年全球疾病负担》流行病学数据库。结果基于对全球各国和地区肾脏疾病登记处的数据进行分析,并对1980 - 2010年的文献进行详细系统回顾。使用负二项贝叶斯元回归工具对该数据库中187个国家的维持性透析提供情况的发病率和患病率估计值进行了更新。结果表明,几乎在世界所有地区,维持性透析的使用都有大幅增长。人口结构变化、老龄化加剧以及全球糖尿病和高血压发病率上升解释了增长的很大一部分,但并非全部,因为透析服务的增加也占了增长的一部分。这些发现表明将肾脏疾病纳入全球非传染性疾病目标以减少过早死亡的重要性。
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