Yang Feng-ke, He Bao-lin, Gao Shi-ming
Ying Yong Sheng Tai Xue Bao. 2015 Mar;26(3):930-8.
The climate of Gansu turned to be overall warming-drying and partly warming-wetting since 1986. In contrast to that of 1960, the average annual temperature had raised by 1.1°C with the average annual precipitation decreased by 28 mm correspondingly, which made the arid region expanded southward by 50 km in 2010. Climate warming increased the growth period effective accumulated temperature of main food grain crops and lengthened the crop growth period. It changed crop maturity, crop disposition, cropping system and generally increased the cultivatable area and planting altitude above the sea level of major crops and expanded northward the multiple cropping system, which further resulted in expansion of autumn grain crop sown area, shrink of summer grain crop sown area, and replacement of strong winter early maturing varieties by weak winter middle late maturing varieties. It benefited the crop yield by increasing the use efficiency of photo-thermal resources. Warming-wetting climate increased the climate productivity of oasis crop while warming-drying weather decreased the climate productivity of rainfed crops, which were mostly determined by the precipitation regimes and water conditions. Any advanced technique that can increase precipitation use ratio and water use efficiency as well as improve and promote soil quality and fertility should be regarded as an effective countermeasure to increase food grain production under climate change in Gsansu. So, selecting and breeding new crop varieties with the characteristics of strong resistance, weak winter, middle-late mature and high water use efficiency, establishing new planting structure and cropping system that suitable to the precipitation and temperature features of changed climate, are the development direction of food grain production in Gansu to cope with the climate change.
自1986年以来,甘肃气候总体呈暖干化趋势,局部地区为暖湿化。与1960年相比,年平均气温升高了1.1°C,年平均降水量相应减少了28毫米,致使2010年干旱区向南扩展了50公里。气候变暖增加了主要粮食作物生长季的有效积温,延长了作物生长周期。它改变了作物的成熟度、作物布局、种植制度,总体上增加了主要作物的可耕地面积和种植海拔高度,使复种制度向北扩展,进而导致秋粮播种面积扩大,夏粮播种面积缩小,强冬性早熟品种被弱冬性中晚熟品种取代。这通过提高光热资源利用效率而有利于作物产量。暖湿气候提高了绿洲作物的气候生产力,而暖干气候降低了雨养作物的气候生产力,这主要取决于降水状况和水分条件。任何能够提高降水利用率和水分利用效率以及改善和提升土壤质量与肥力的先进技术,都应被视为甘肃应对气候变化增加粮食产量的有效对策。因此,选育具有抗性强、弱冬性、中晚熟和高水分利用效率特点的作物新品种,建立适合气候变化降水和温度特征的新种植结构和种植制度,是甘肃粮食生产应对气候变化的发展方向。