Cao Ling, Wang Qiang, Deng Zhen-yong, Guo Xiao-qin, Ma Xing-xiang, Ning Hui-fang
Gansu Province Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Reducing Disaster/Key Open Laboratory of Arid Climate Change and Disaster Reduction, Lanzhou Institute of Arid Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Lanzhou 730020, China.
Ying Yong Sheng Tai Xue Bao. 2010 Nov;21(11):2931-7.
Based on the data of air temperature, precipitation, and millet yield from Ganzhou, Anding, and Xifeng, the representative stations in Hexi moderate arid oasis irrigation area, moderate sub-arid dry area in middle Gansu, and moderate sub-humid dry area in eastern Gansu, respectively, this paper calculated the regional active accumulated temperature of > or = 0 degrees C, > or =5 degrees C, > or =10 degrees C, > or =15 degrees C, and > or =20 degrees C in millet growth period, and the average temperature and precipitation in millet key growth stages. The millet climatic yield was isolated by orthogonal polynomial, and the change characteristics of climate and millet climatic yield as well as the effects of climate change on millet yield were analyzed by statistical methods of linear tendency, cumulative anomaly, and Mann-Kendall. The results showed that warming and drying were the main regional features in the modern climatic change of Gansu. The regional temperature had a significant upward trend since the early 1990s, while the precipitation was significantly reduced from the late 1980s. There were significant correlations between millet yield and climatic factors. The millet yield in dry areas increased with the increasing temperature and precipitation in millet key growth stages, and that in Hexi Corridor area increased with increasing temperature. Warming and drying affected millet yield prominently. The weather fluctuation index of regional millet yield in Xifeng, Anding, and Ganzhou accounted for 73%, 72%, and 54% of real output coefficient variation, respectively, and the percentages increased significantly after warming. Warming was conducive to the increase of millet production, and the annual increment of millet climatic yield in Xifeng, Anding, and Ganzhou after warming was 30.6, 43.1, and 121.1 kg x hm(-2), respectively. Aiming at the warming and drying trend in Gansu Province in the future, the millet planting area in the Province should be further expanded, and the millet planting structure should be adjusted. At the same time, according to the different regional and yearly climatic types, different varieties should be selected, and various planting measures should be taken.
本文分别依据河西中度干旱绿洲灌溉区的甘州、中部甘肃中度亚干旱干旱区的安定、东部甘肃中度亚湿润干旱区的西峰这三个代表站点的气温、降水及谷子产量数据，计算了谷子生育期内≥0℃、≥5℃、≥10℃、≥15℃和≥20℃的区域活动积温，以及谷子关键生育期的平均气温和降水量。采用正交多项式分离出谷子气候产量，运用线性趋势、累积距平、Mann-Kendall等统计方法分析了气候及谷子气候产量的变化特征，以及气候变化对谷子产量的影响。结果表明，变暖变干是甘肃现代气候变化的主要区域特征。自20世纪90年代初以来，区域气温呈显著上升趋势，而降水量自20世纪80年代末显著减少。谷子产量与气候因子之间存在显著相关性。干旱区谷子产量随谷子关键生育期气温和降水量的增加而增加，河西走廊地区谷子产量随气温升高而增加。变暖和变干对谷子产量影响显著。西峰、安定和甘州区域谷子产量的气象波动指数分别占实际产量系数变异的73%、72%和54%，变暖后该百分比显著增加。变暖有利于谷子产量增加，变暖后西峰、安定和甘州谷子气候产量的年增量分别为30.6、43.1和121.1 kg·hm-2。针对甘肃省未来变暖和变干趋势，应进一步扩大全省谷子种植面积，调整谷子种植结构。同时，根据不同区域和年份的气候类型，选择不同品种，采取多种种植措施。
