CALy Prognostic Score (CEA, ALP, Lymphocyte Count) as a predictor of survival after hepatectomy for liver-only colorectal metastases.

PURPOSE

The discovery of prognostic factors for patients who undergo hepatectomy for colorectal liver metastases (CRLM) in the era of neoadjuvant chemotherapy is imperative. This study aimed to establish a simple, cheap and easily available prognostic score for these patients.

METHODS

Preoperative carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA), serum alkaline phosphatase (ALP), and lymphocyte count (LC) were used for the establishment of a prognostic score (CALy PS). The cut-off levels of these variables were determined by applying receiver operating curve (ROC) analysis. The final prognostic score assigned one risk point for each variable (CEA>4 μg/L, ALP>93 U/L, and LC≥1.6x10(9)/L).

RESULTS

One hundred and thirty-five patients were included. Two risk categories were established with 0-1 and 2-3 points, respectively. CALy 0-1 vs CALy 2-3, and CALy 2-3 were associated with decreased disease free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) both in univariate and multivariate analysis (DFS: HR 1.84; 95% CI 1.18-2.86; p=0.007; OS: HR 2.25; 95% CI 1.23-4.11; p=0.008). When four risk categories were established with 0,1,2,and 3 points,CALy was again associated with decreased DFS and OS both in univariate and in multivariate analysis (DFS: HR 1.37; 95% CI 1.083-1.74; p=0.009; OS:HR 1.84; 95% CI 1.31-2.59; p<0.001). Three-year DFS rates for these categories (CALy 0, CALy 1, CALy 2, and CALy 3) were 45, 38, 15 and 7%, respectively, and the 5-year OS rates were 78, 68, 32, and 24%, respectively.

CONCLUSION

This simple, cheap, and easily available risk score provides good prognostic accuracy for both DFS and OS for patients undergoing liver resection for liver-only colorectal metastases after neoadjuvant chemotherapy.