Wang Xiao Yu, Guo Yuming, FitzGerald Gerry, Aitken Peter, Tippett Vivienne, Chen Dong, Wang Xiaoming, Tong Shilu
School of Public Health and Social Work, Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia.
School of Population Health, Faculty of Medicine and Biomedical Sciences, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia.
PLoS One. 2015 Jul 28;10(7):e0134233. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0134233. eCollection 2015.
Different locations and study periods were used in the assessment of the relationships between heatwaves and mortality. However, little is known about the comparability and consistency of the previous effect estimates in the literature. This study assessed the heatwave-mortality relationship using different study periods in the three largest Australian cities (Brisbane, Melbourne and Sydney).
Daily data on climatic variables and mortality for the three cities were obtained from relevant government agencies between 1988 and 2011. A consistent definition of heatwaves was used for these cities. Poisson generalised additive model was fitted to assess the impact of heatwaves on mortality.
Non-accidental and circulatory mortality significantly increased during heatwaves across the three cities even with different heatwave definitions and study periods. Using the summer data resulted in the largest increase in effect estimates compared to those using the warm season or the whole year data.
The findings may have implications for developing standard approaches to evaluating the heatwave-mortality relationship and advancing heat health warning systems. It also provides an impetus to methodological advance for assessing climate change-related health consequences.
在评估热浪与死亡率之间的关系时，采用了不同的地点和研究时期。然而，对于文献中先前效应估计的可比性和一致性知之甚少。本研究在澳大利亚三个最大的城市（布里斯班、墨尔本和悉尼）使用不同的研究时期评估了热浪与死亡率的关系。
从相关政府机构获取了1988年至2011年期间这三个城市的气候变量和死亡率的每日数据。对这些城市采用了一致的热浪定义。拟合泊松广义相加模型以评估热浪对死亡率的影响。
即使采用不同的热浪定义和研究时期，在这三个城市的热浪期间，非意外死亡率和循环系统疾病死亡率仍显著增加。与使用暖季或全年数据相比，使用夏季数据导致效应估计的增加幅度最大。
这些发现可能对制定评估热浪与死亡率关系的标准方法以及推进热健康预警系统具有启示意义。它也为评估与气候变化相关的健康后果的方法学进步提供了动力。
