Guanais Frederico C
Frederico C. Guanais is with the Social Protection and Health Division, Inter-American Development Bank, Washington, DC.
Am J Public Health. 2015 Oct;105 Suppl 4(Suppl 4):S593-9, S585-92. doi: 10.2105/AJPH.2013.301452r.
I examined the combined effects of access to primary care through the Family Health Program (FHP) and conditional cash transfers from the Bolsa Familia Program (BFP) on postneonatal infant mortality (PNIM) in Brazil.
I employed longitudinal ecological analysis using panel data from 4583 Brazilian municipalities from 1998 to 2010, totaling 54 253 observations. I estimated fixed-effects ordinary least squares regressions models with PNIM rate as the dependent variable and FHP, BFP, and their interactions as the main independent variables of interest.
The association of higher FHP coverage with lower PNIM became stronger as BFP coverage increased. At the means of all other variables, when BFP coverage was 25%, predicted PNIM was 5.24 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 4.95, 5.53) for FHP coverage = 0% and 3.54 (95% CI = 2.77, 4.31) for FHP coverage = 100%. When BFP coverage was 60%, predicted PNIM was 4.65 (95% CI = 4.36, 4.94) when FHP coverage = 0% and 1.38 (95% CI = 0.88, 1.89) when FHP coverage = 100%.
The effect of the FHP depends on the expansion of the BFP. For impoverished, underserved populations, combining supply- and demand-side interventions may be necessary to improve health outcomes.
我研究了通过家庭健康计划(FHP)获得初级保健以及来自家庭补助金计划(BFP)的有条件现金转移对巴西新生儿期后婴儿死亡率(PNIM)的综合影响。
我使用了1998年至2010年巴西4583个市的面板数据进行纵向生态分析,共计54253个观测值。我估计了固定效应普通最小二乘回归模型,以PNIM率作为因变量,FHP、BFP及其交互项作为主要感兴趣的自变量。
随着BFP覆盖率的增加,FHP覆盖率较高与较低PNIM之间的关联变得更强。在所有其他变量的均值水平上,当BFP覆盖率为25%时,FHP覆盖率 = 0%时预测的PNIM为5.24(95%置信区间[CI]=4.95,5.53),FHP覆盖率 = 100%时为3.54(95%CI = 2.77,4.31)。当BFP覆盖率为60%时,FHP覆盖率 = 0%时预测的PNIM为4.65(95%CI = 4.36,4.94),FHP覆盖率 = 100%时为1.38(95%CI = 0.88,1.89)。
FHP的效果取决于BFP的扩展。对于贫困、服务不足的人群,可能需要结合供应侧和需求侧干预措施来改善健康结果。