Sharmin Sifat, Viennet Elvina, Glass Kathryn, Harley David
National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, Research School of Population Health, The Australian National University, ACT 2601, Australia.
National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, Research School of Population Health, The Australian National University, ACT 2601, Australia
Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg. 2015 Oct;109(10):619-27. doi: 10.1093/trstmh/trv067. Epub 2015 Sep 1.
Dengue occurred sporadically in Bangladesh from 1964 until a large epidemic in 2000 established the virus. We trace dengue from the time it was first identified in Bangladesh and identify factors favourable to future dengue haemorrhagic fever epidemics. The epidemic in 2000 was likely due to introduction of a dengue virus strain from a nearby endemic country, probably Thailand. Cessation of dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT) spraying, climatic, socio-demographic, and lifestyle factors also contributed to epidemic transmission. The largest number of cases was notified in 2002 and since then reported outbreaks have generally declined, although with increased notifications in alternate years. The apparent decline might be partially due to public awareness with consequent reduction in mosquito breeding and increased prevalence of immunity. However, passive hospital-based surveillance has changed with mandatory serological confirmation now required for case reporting. Further, a large number of cases remain undetected because only patients with severe dengue require hospitalisation. Thus, the reduction in notification numbers may be an artefact of the surveillance system. Indeed, population-based serological survey indicates that dengue transmission continues to be common. In the future, the absence of active interventions, unplanned urbanisation, environmental deterioration, increasing population mobility, and economic factors will heighten dengue risk. Projected increases in temperature and rainfall may exacerbate this.
1964年至2000年期间,登革热在孟加拉国呈零星发生,直至2000年的一次大规模疫情使该病毒得以确立。我们追溯了登革热在孟加拉国首次被发现的时间,并确定了有利于未来登革出血热疫情的因素。2000年的疫情可能是由于从附近的流行国家(可能是泰国)引入了一种登革热病毒株。停止喷洒二氯二苯三氯乙烷(滴滴涕)、气候、社会人口统计学和生活方式因素也促成了疫情传播。2002年报告的病例数最多,自那时以来,报告的疫情总体上有所下降,尽管隔年的报告病例数有所增加。这种明显的下降可能部分归因于公众意识的提高,从而减少了蚊子滋生以及免疫力患病率的增加。然而,基于医院的被动监测已经发生了变化,现在病例报告需要进行强制性血清学确认。此外,大量病例仍未被发现,因为只有重症登革热患者才需要住院治疗。因此,报告病例数的减少可能是监测系统的一个假象。事实上,基于人群的血清学调查表明登革热传播仍然很常见。未来,缺乏积极干预措施、无计划的城市化、环境恶化、人口流动性增加以及经济因素将增加登革热风险。预计气温和降雨量的上升可能会加剧这种情况。