Anthony Simon J, Islam Ariful, Johnson Christine, Navarrete-Macias Isamara, Liang Eliza, Jain Komal, Hitchens Peta L, Che Xiaoyu, Soloyvov Alexander, Hicks Allison L, Ojeda-Flores Rafael, Zambrana-Torrelio Carlos, Ulrich Werner, Rostal Melinda K, Petrosov Alexandra, Garcia Joel, Haider Najmul, Wolfe Nathan, Goldstein Tracey, Morse Stephen S, Rahman Mahmudur, Epstein Jonathan H, Mazet Jonna K, Daszak Peter, Lipkin W Ian
Center for Infection and Immunity, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, 722 West 168th Street, New York, New York 10032, USA.
Department of Epidemiology, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, 722 West 168th Street, New York, New York 10032, USA.
Nat Commun. 2015 Sep 22;6:8147. doi: 10.1038/ncomms9147.
It is currently unclear whether changes in viral communities will ever be predictable. Here we investigate whether viral communities in wildlife are inherently structured (inferring predictability) by looking at whether communities are assembled through deterministic (often predictable) or stochastic (not predictable) processes. We sample macaque faeces across nine sites in Bangladesh and use consensus PCR and sequencing to discover 184 viruses from 14 viral families. We then use network modelling and statistical null-hypothesis testing to show the presence of non-random deterministic patterns at different scales, between sites and within individuals. We show that the effects of determinism are not absolute however, as stochastic patterns are also observed. In showing that determinism is an important process in viral community assembly we conclude that it should be possible to forecast changes to some portion of a viral community, however there will always be some portion for which prediction will be unlikely.
目前尚不清楚病毒群落的变化是否可以预测。在此，我们通过研究群落是通过确定性（通常可预测）还是随机性（不可预测）过程组装来调查野生动物中的病毒群落是否具有内在结构（推断可预测性）。我们在孟加拉国的九个地点采集猕猴粪便样本，并使用共识PCR和测序从14个病毒科中发现了184种病毒。然后，我们使用网络建模和统计零假设检验来显示在不同尺度、地点之间和个体内部存在非随机的确定性模式。然而，我们发现确定性的影响并非绝对，因为也观察到了随机模式。在表明确定性是病毒群落组装中的一个重要过程时，我们得出结论，应该有可能预测病毒群落的某些部分的变化，然而总会有一些部分不太可能被预测。
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