Bakach Iurii, Just Matthew R, Gambhir Manoj, Fung Isaac Chun-Hai
Department of Mathematical Sciences, College of Science and Mathematics, Georgia Southern University, Statesboro, Georgia, USA.
Epidemiological Modelling Unit, Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Nursing and Health Sciences, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.
Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg. 2015 Nov;109(11):679-89. doi: 10.1093/trstmh/trv075. Epub 2015 Sep 21.
Mathematical models of typhoid transmission were first developed nearly half a century ago. To facilitate a better understanding of the historical development of this field, we reviewed mathematical models of typhoid and summarized their structures and limitations. Eleven models, published in 1971 to 2014, were reviewed. While models of typhoid vaccination are well developed, we highlight the need to better incorporate water, sanitation and hygiene interventions into models of typhoid and other foodborne and waterborne diseases. Mathematical modeling is a powerful tool to test and compare different intervention strategies which is important in the world of limited resources. By working collaboratively, epidemiologists and mathematicians should build better mathematical models of typhoid transmission, including pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical interventions, which will be useful in epidemiological and public health practice.
伤寒传播的数学模型最早是在近半个世纪前建立的。为了更好地理解该领域的历史发展，我们回顾了伤寒数学模型，并总结了它们的结构和局限性。我们回顾了1971年至2014年发表的11个模型。虽然伤寒疫苗接种模型已经很完善，但我们强调需要在伤寒以及其他食源性和水源性疾病模型中更好地纳入水、环境卫生和个人卫生干预措施。数学建模是测试和比较不同干预策略的有力工具，这在资源有限的世界中很重要。通过合作，流行病学家和数学家应该建立更好的伤寒传播数学模型，包括药物和非药物干预措施，这将在流行病学和公共卫生实践中发挥作用。
