Landscape Ecology, University of Vechta, POB 15 53, 49377 Vechta, Germany.
Leibnitz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, Eberswalder Straße 84, 15374 Müncheberg, Germany.
Sci Total Environ. 2016 Jan 15;541:329-340. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.09.043. Epub 2015 Sep 25.
The question whether global climate change invalidates the efficiency of established land use practice cannot be answered without systemic considerations on a region specific basis. In this context plant water availability and irrigation requirements, respectively, were investigated in Northern Germany. The regions under investigation--Diepholz, Uelzen, Fläming and Oder-Spree--represent a climatic gradient with increasing continentality from West to East. Besides regional climatic variation and climate change, soil conditions and crop management differ on the regional scale. In the model regions, temporal seasonal droughts influence crop success already today, but on different levels of intensity depending mainly on climate conditions. By linking soil water holding capacities, crop management data and calculations of evapotranspiration and precipitation from the climate change scenario RCP 8.5 irrigation requirements for maintaining crop productivity were estimated for the years 1991 to 2070. Results suggest that water requirement for crop irrigation is likely to increase with considerable regional variation. For some of the regions, irrigation requirements might increase to such an extent that the established regional agricultural practice might be hard to retain. Where water availability is limited, agricultural practice, like management and cultivated crop spectrum, has to be changed to deal with the new challenges.
在没有对特定区域进行系统考虑的情况下，无法回答全球气候变化是否会降低既定土地利用实践效率的问题。在这方面，对德国北部的植物水分可用性和灌溉需求进行了研究。研究区域——迪普霍夫、于尔岑、弗拉明和奥得施普雷——代表了一个从西到东大陆性逐渐增强的气候梯度。除了区域气候变化外，土壤条件和作物管理在区域尺度上也存在差异。在这些模型区域中，季节性干旱已经影响到了作物的收成，但其影响程度因气候条件而异。通过将土壤水分保持能力、作物管理数据以及 RCP8.5 气候变化情景下的蒸散量和降水量计算相联系，我们估算了 1991 年至 2070 年期间维持作物生产力所需的灌溉需求。结果表明，作物灌溉的需水量可能会有相当大的区域差异。对于一些地区，灌溉需求可能会增加到难以维持既定区域农业实践的程度。在水资源有限的地区，必须改变农业实践，如管理和种植作物种类，以应对新的挑战。
