Huai Jianjun
Department of Economics, College of Economics and Management, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, Shaanxi, China.
Sci Rep. 2016 Sep 27;6:33744. doi: 10.1038/srep33744.
Although the integrated indicator methods have become popular for assessing vulnerability to climate change, their proliferation has introduced a confusing array of scales and indicators that cause a science-policy gap. I argue for a clear adaptation pathway in an "integrative typology" of regional vulnerability that matches appropriate scales, optimal measurements and adaptive strategies in a six-dimensional and multi-level analysis framework of integration and typology inspired by the "5W1H" questions: "Who is concerned about how to adapt to the vulnerability of what to what in some place (where) at some time (when)?" Using the case of the vulnerability of wheat, barley and oats to drought in Australian wheat sheep zones during 1978-1999, I answer the "5W1H" questions through establishing the "six typologies" framework. I then optimize the measurement of vulnerability through contrasting twelve kinds of vulnerability scores with the divergence of crops yields from their regional mean. Through identifying the socioeconomic constraints, I propose seven generic types of crop-drought vulnerability and local adaptive strategy. Our results illustrate that the process of assessing vulnerability and selecting adaptations can be enhanced using a combination of integration, optimization and typology, which emphasize dynamic transitions and transformations between integration and typology.
尽管综合指标方法在评估气候变化脆弱性方面已变得流行，但其大量涌现带来了一系列令人困惑的尺度和指标，导致了科学与政策之间的差距。我主张在区域脆弱性的“综合类型学”中建立一条清晰的适应路径，该路径在一个受“5W1H”问题启发的六维多层次综合与类型分析框架中匹配适当的尺度、最优测量方法和适应策略：“在某个时间（何时）、某个地点（何地），谁关注如何适应什么对什么的脆弱性？”以1978 - 1999年澳大利亚小麦牧羊区小麦、大麦和燕麦的干旱脆弱性为例，我通过建立“六种类型学”框架来回答“5W1H”问题。然后，通过将十二种脆弱性得分与作物产量与其区域均值的差异进行对比，优化脆弱性测量。通过识别社会经济制约因素，我提出了七种通用的作物干旱脆弱性类型和地方适应策略。我们的结果表明，使用综合、优化和类型学相结合的方法可以加强评估脆弱性和选择适应措施的过程，这些方法强调综合与类型学之间的动态转变。
