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[传染病的生态动力学。I. 季节变化]

[Ecologic dynamics of infectious diseases. I. Seasonal variations].

作者信息

Canals M, Martínez L, Firinguetti L

出版信息

Rev Med Chil. 1989 Jan;117(1):87-94.

PMID:2641629
Abstract

We studied the incidence of typhoid fever, hepatitis, poliomyelitis, scarlet fever, pertussis and measles from 1954 to 1984 as reported in the yearly records of diseases subjected to compulsory notification. Autocorrelation functions and Fourier analysis were used to study incidence fluctuation. Seasonal variations related in all cases to pathogenic factors were found for all diseases. Air borne transmission was related to a peak incidence in spring and enteric transmission in summer. Person to person transmission and crowding at school are noted as factors influencing the incidence pattern of hepatitis and scarlet fever.

摘要

我们研究了1954年至1984年期间伤寒、肝炎、脊髓灰质炎、猩红热、百日咳和麻疹的发病率,这些数据来自须强制报告疾病的年度记录。运用自相关函数和傅里叶分析来研究发病率的波动情况。发现所有疾病的季节性变化在所有情况下均与致病因素相关。空气传播与春季发病率高峰有关,而肠道传播与夏季发病率高峰有关。人与人之间的传播以及学校内的拥挤状况被视为影响肝炎和猩红热发病模式的因素。

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