Canals M, Martínez L, Firinguetti L
Rev Med Chil. 1989 Jan;117(1):95-100.
The incidence of hepatitis, mumps, poliomyelitis, scarlet fever, pertussis and measles from 1954 to 1984 was studied from the annual records of infectious diseases. Fluctuations were evaluated by Fourier analysis. Periodic recurrency was detected for poliomyelitis, scarlet fever, pertussis and measles and was likely for mumps. The asynchronic fluctuation of the proportion of cases and susceptible individuals is considered to be the origin of this phenomenon. Observed fluctuations corresponded to those predicted by the models.
根据传染病年度记录，研究了1954年至1984年期间肝炎、腮腺炎、脊髓灰质炎、猩红热、百日咳和麻疹的发病率。通过傅里叶分析评估波动情况。检测到脊髓灰质炎、猩红热、百日咳和麻疹存在周期性复发，腮腺炎可能也存在。病例比例与易感个体比例的异步波动被认为是这一现象的根源。观察到的波动与模型预测的波动相符。
