Silva Paul Hindenburg Nobre de Vasconcelos, Lima Maria Luiza Carvalho, Souza Wayner Vieira, Moreira Rafael da Silveira, Oliveira Fernando José Moreira
Centro de Pesquisas Aggeu Magalhães, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Recife, Brasil.
Departamento de Saúde Coletiva, Centro de Pesquisas Aggeu Magalhães, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Recife, Brasil.
Salud Colect. 2015 Sep;11(3):401-10. doi: 10.18294/sc.2015.724.
The objective of this article was to identify the association between motorcycle deaths and variables related to Samaja's theory of social reproduction in the period 2000-2005 in the state of Pernambuco. An ecological, case-control study was carried out, with municipalities as the unit of analysis. Cases were defined as the 20% of municipalities with the highest local empirical Bayesian coefficients for mortality due to motorcycle accidents, and controls as the 40% with the lowest coefficients. The municipalities with the greatest chances of high coefficients for mortality due to motorcycle accidents showed high population growth factors and increases in the total fleet of motorcycles, with low population densities, low GDP per capita, and more than 20 motorcycles per thousand inhabitants. We conclude that the variables related to macro-policies proved to have greater force in explaining higher chances of motorcycle death.
本文的目的是确定2000年至2005年期间伯南布哥州摩托车死亡与萨马亚社会再生产理论相关变量之间的关联。开展了一项以市为分析单位的生态病例对照研究。病例被定义为因摩托车事故导致死亡率的当地经验贝叶斯系数最高的20%的市,对照为系数最低的40%的市。因摩托车事故导致死亡率系数高的可能性最大的市呈现出高人口增长因素以及摩托车总保有量的增加,同时人口密度低、人均国内生产总值低且每千名居民拥有超过20辆摩托车。我们得出结论,事实证明与宏观政策相关的变量在解释摩托车死亡几率较高方面具有更大的影响力。