阿拉戈斯州摩托车事故死亡率（2001 - 2015年）：“干旱法”前后的时间和空间建模

Mortality in motorcycle accidents in Alagoas (2001-2015): temporal and spatial modeling before and after the "lei seca".

作者信息

Souza Carlos Dornels Freire de, Paiva João Paulo Silva de, Leal Thiago Cavalcanti, Silva Leonardo Feitosa da, Machado Michael Ferreira, Araújo Maria Deysiane Porto de

机构信息

. Núcleo de Estudos em Medicina Social e Preventiva (Nemsp), Departamento de Medicina, Universidade Federal de Alagoas, Arapiraca, AL, Brasil.

出版信息

Rev Assoc Med Bras (1992). 2019 Dec;65(12):1482-1488. doi: 10.1590/1806-9282.65.12.1482.

DOI:10.1590/1806-9282.65.12.1482

PMID:31994630

Abstract

OBJECTIVE

To analyze the epidemiological profile and the Spatio-temporal distribution of mortality in motorcycle accidents in Alagoas before (2001-2007) and after the "Lei seca" (2008-2015).

METHODS

This is a mixed ecologic study. All deaths in the state with the codes V20-V29 (ICD-10) as the basic cause were included in the study. Sociodemographic variables and mortality rates per sex were analyzed. For the temporal analysis, the inflection point regression model was used. For spatial analysis, the rates were smoothed by the Local Empirical Bayesian Model and, subsequently, the Global and Local Moran statistic was used to identify the spatial clusters of risk.

RESULTS

There were 1458 deaths caused by motorcycle accidents in the period studied; the following characteristics about the victims stand out: male (91.29%), economically active age (82.93%), and brown race (78.12%). In the male population, there was a growth trend between 2001 and 2007 (19.0%, p<0.001), and a decline from 2008 (-11.2%, p<0.001). Spatial modeling showed that the areas with the highest risk of mortality are located in the agreste and sertão of the state (p = 0.01).

CONCLUSION

Mortality in motorcycle accidents is an important public health problem in Alagoas, with an emphasis on male mortality and geographic concentration within the state.

摘要

目的

分析阿拉戈斯州在“干旱法”实施前（2001 - 2007年）和实施后（2008 - 2015年）摩托车事故死亡率的流行病学概况及时空分布。

方法

这是一项混合生态学研究。该研究纳入了该州所有以V20 - V29（国际疾病分类第十版）编码为根本原因的死亡病例。分析了社会人口统计学变量和按性别划分的死亡率。对于时间分析，使用了拐点回归模型。对于空间分析，通过局部经验贝叶斯模型对发病率进行平滑处理，随后使用全局和局部莫兰统计量来识别风险的空间聚集情况。

结果

在所研究的时间段内，有1458例因摩托车事故导致的死亡；受害者具有以下特征：男性（91.29%）、经济活跃年龄（82.93%）和棕色人种（78.12%）。在男性人群中，2001年至2007年呈增长趋势（19.0%，p<0.001），2008年起呈下降趋势（-11.2%，p<0.001）。空间建模显示，死亡率最高的地区位于该州的滨海平原和半干旱地区（p = 0.01）。