Hu Linchao, Huang Mugen, Tang Moxun, Yu Jianshe, Zheng Bo
College of Mathematics and Information Sciences, Guangzhou University, Guangzhou, 510006, PR China; Key Laboratory of Mathematics and Interdisciplinary Sciences of Guangdong Higher Education Institutes, Guangzhou University, Guangzhou, 510006, PR China.
Department of Mathematics, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI 48824, USA.
Theor Popul Biol. 2015 Dec;106:32-44. doi: 10.1016/j.tpb.2015.09.003. Epub 2015 Sep 30.
Dengue fever is a mosquito-borne viral disease with 100 million people infected annually. A novel strategy for dengue control uses the bacterium Wolbachia to invade dengue vector Aedes mosquitoes. As the impact of environmental heterogeneity on Wolbachia spread dynamics in natural areas has been rarely quantified, we develop a model of differential equations for which the environmental conditions switch randomly between two regimes. We find some striking phenomena that random regime transitions could drive Wolbachia to extinction from certain initial states confirmed Wolbachia fixation in homogeneous environments, and mosquito releasing facilitates Wolbachia invasion more effectively when the regimes transit frequently. By superimposing the phase spaces of the ODE systems defined in each regime, we identify the threshold curves below which Wolbachia invades the whole population, which extends the theory of threshold infection frequency to stochastic environments.
登革热是一种由蚊子传播的病毒性疾病，每年有1亿人感染。一种控制登革热的新策略是利用沃尔巴克氏体细菌来感染登革热传播媒介伊蚊。由于环境异质性对自然区域内沃尔巴克氏体传播动态的影响很少被量化，我们建立了一个微分方程模型，其中环境条件在两种状态之间随机切换。我们发现了一些惊人的现象：随机状态转变可能导致沃尔巴克氏体从某些初始状态灭绝，这证实了沃尔巴克氏体在均匀环境中的固定，并且当状态频繁转变时，释放蚊子能更有效地促进沃尔巴克氏体的入侵。通过叠加在每个状态下定义的常微分方程系统的相空间，我们确定了沃尔巴克氏体入侵整个种群的阈值曲线，这将阈值感染频率理论扩展到了随机环境。
