Sharmeen Fariya, Arentze Theo, Timmermans Harry
Eindhoven University of Technology, P.O. Box 513, Vertigo 8.09, 5600 MB Eindhoven, The Netherlands.
Transportation (Amst). 2015;42(5):733-751. doi: 10.1007/s11116-015-9644-8. Epub 2015 Sep 1.
This paper presents a model of social network evolution, to predict and simulate changes in social networks induced by lifecycle events. We argue that social networks change with lifecycle events, and we extend a model of friendship selection to incorporate these dynamics of personal social networks. The model uses theories of homophily and reciprocity and is formulated in a random utility maximization framework to predict the formation of social ties between individuals in the population. It is then extended to predict the evolution of social networks in response to life cycle events. The model is estimated using attribute data of a national sample and an event-based retrospective dataset collected in 2009 and 2011 respectively. Findings suggest that homophily has a strong effect on the formation of new ties. However, heterophily also plays a role in maintaining existing ties. Although the motivation of this research stems from incorporating social network dynamics in large-scale travel behaviour micro-simulation models, the research can be used in a variety of fields for similar purposes.
本文提出了一个社交网络演化模型，用于预测和模拟生命周期事件引发的社交网络变化。我们认为社交网络会随着生命周期事件而变化，并扩展了一个友谊选择模型以纳入个人社交网络的这些动态变化。该模型运用了同质性和互惠性理论，并在随机效用最大化框架中构建，以预测人群中个体之间社会关系的形成。随后，它被扩展用于预测社交网络对生命周期事件的演化。该模型使用了分别于2009年和2011年收集的全国样本属性数据以及基于事件的回顾性数据集进行估计。研究结果表明，同质性对新关系的形成有很强的影响。然而，异质性在维持现有关系中也发挥着作用。尽管本研究的动机源于将社交网络动态纳入大规模出行行为微观模拟模型，但该研究可用于各种类似目的的领域。
