Prediction of psychosis using neural oscillations and machine learning in neuroleptic-naïve at-risk patients.

OBJECTIVES

This study investigates whether abnormal neural oscillations, which have been shown to precede the onset of frank psychosis, could be used towards the individualised prediction of psychosis in clinical high-risk patients.

METHODS

We assessed the individualised prediction of psychosis by detecting specific patterns of beta and gamma oscillations using machine-learning algorithms. Prediction models were trained and tested on 53 neuroleptic-naïve patients with a clinical high-risk for psychosis. Of these, 18 later transitioned to psychosis. All patients were followed up for at least 3 years. For an honest estimation of the generalisation capacity, the predictive performance of the models was assessed in unseen test cases using repeated nested cross-validation.

RESULTS

Transition to psychosis could be predicted from current-source density (CSD; area under the curve [AUC] = 0.77), but not from lagged phase synchronicity data (LPS; AUC = 0.56). Combining both modalities did not improve the predictive accuracy (AUC = 0.78). The left superior temporal gyrus, the left inferior parietal lobule and the precuneus most strongly contributed to the prediction of psychosis.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that CSD measurements extracted from clinical resting state EEG can help to improve the prediction of psychosis on a single-subject level.