Graham John D, Rupp John A, Schenk Olga
School of Public and Environmental Affairs, Indiana University, Bloomington, IN, 47405, USA.
Risk Anal. 2015 Oct;35(10):1770-88. doi: 10.1111/risa.12512. Epub 2015 Oct 13.
Unconventional gas development (UGD) is growing rapidly in the United States. Drawing on insights from risk perception and risk governance theories and recent public opinion surveys, we find that UGD is an emerging technology that is likely to be perceived as risky, even though objective risk assessments suggest that risks are low and controllable through best risk management practices. Perceived risk varies significantly depending on the state and locality but perceptions of risk appear to be increasing as the technology is used more widely in the United States and as organized opponents of the technology intensify their efforts. Risk perceptions are attenuated somewhat because of the perceived benefits of UGD and compensation schemes for individuals and communities. The types of triggering events necessary for large-scale social amplification and stigmatization have not yet occurred but awareness of UGD is growing and organized opposition has been sufficient to cause prohibitions of UGD in some U.S. states and localities. Additional directions for social science research on public reactions to UGD are recommended.
非常规天然气开发(UGD)在美国正迅速发展。借鉴风险认知和风险治理理论的见解以及近期的民意调查,我们发现UGD是一项新兴技术,即便客观风险评估表明风险较低且可通过最佳风险管理实践加以控制,但它仍可能被视为有风险。感知风险因州和地区的不同而有显著差异,不过随着该技术在美国更广泛地应用以及该技术的有组织反对者加大力度,对风险的认知似乎在增加。由于UGD带来的感知利益以及针对个人和社区的补偿计划,风险认知有所减弱。大规模社会放大和污名化所需的触发事件类型尚未发生,但对UGD的认知在不断增加,有组织的反对已足以导致美国一些州和地方禁止UGD。本文还推荐了社会科学关于公众对UGD反应的研究的其他方向。