Ma Yue, Zhang Tao, Liu Lei, Lv Qiang, Yin Fei
West China School of Public Health, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan, People's Republic of China.
Sichuan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chengdu, Sichuan, People's Republic of China.
Sci Rep. 2015 Oct 15;5:15264. doi: 10.1038/srep15264.
Bacillary dysentery (BD) remains a big public health problem in China. Effective spatio-temporal monitoring of BD incidence is important for successful implementation of control and prevention measures. This study aimed to examine the spatio-temporal pattern of BD and analyze socio-economic factors that may affect BD incidence in Sichuan province, China. Firstly, we used space-time scan statistic to detect the high risk spatio-temporal clusters in each year. Then, bivariate spatial correlation and Bayesian spatio-temporal model were utilized to examine the associations between the socio-economic factors and BD incidence. Spatio-temporal clusters of BD were mainly located in the northern-southern belt of the midwest area of Sichuan province. The proportion of primary industry, the proportion of rural population and the rates of BD incidence show statistically significant positive correlation. The proportion of secondary industry, proportion of tertiary Industry, number of beds in hospitals per thousand persons, medical and technical personnel per thousand persons, per capital GDP and the rate of BD incidence show statistically significant negative correlation. The best fitting spatio-temporal model showed that medical and technical personnel per thousand persons and per capital GDP were significantly negative related to the risk of BD.
细菌性痢疾（BD）在中国仍然是一个重大的公共卫生问题。对BD发病率进行有效的时空监测对于成功实施防控措施至关重要。本研究旨在探讨BD的时空模式，并分析可能影响中国四川省BD发病率的社会经济因素。首先，我们使用时空扫描统计量来检测每年的高风险时空聚集区。然后，利用双变量空间相关性和贝叶斯时空模型来检验社会经济因素与BD发病率之间的关联。BD的时空聚集区主要位于四川省中西部的南北地带。第一产业比重、农村人口比重与BD发病率呈统计学显著正相关。第二产业比重、第三产业比重、每千人医院床位数、每千人医疗卫生技术人员数、人均GDP与BD发病率呈统计学显著负相关。最佳拟合时空模型显示，每千人医疗卫生技术人员数和人均GDP与BD风险呈显著负相关。
