Feigin Valery L, Mensah George A, Norrving Bo, Murray Christopher J L, Roth Gregory A
FAAN, National Institute for Stroke and Applied Neurosciences, Auckland University of Technology, Auckland, New Zealand.
Neuroepidemiology. 2015;45(3):230-6. doi: 10.1159/000441106. Epub 2015 Oct 28.
World mapping is an important tool to visualize stroke burden and its trends in various regions and countries.
To show geographic patterns of incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and years lived with disability (YLDs) and their trends for ischemic stroke and hemorrhagic stroke in the world for 1990-2013.
Stroke incidence, prevalence, mortality, DALYs and YLDs were estimated following the general approach of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2010 with several important improvements in methods. Data were updated for mortality (through April 2014) and stroke incidence, prevalence, case fatality and severity through 2013. Death was estimated using an ensemble modeling approach. A new software package, DisMod-MR 2.0, was used as part of a custom modeling process to estimate YLDs. All rates were age-standardized to new GBD estimates of global population. All estimates have been computed with 95% uncertainty intervals.
Age-standardized incidence, mortality, prevalence and DALYs/YLDs declined over the period from 1990 to 2013. However, the absolute number of people affected by stroke has substantially increased across all countries in the world over the same time period, suggesting that the global stroke burden continues to increase. There were significant geographical (country and regional) differences in stroke burden in the world, with the majority of the burden borne by low- and middle-income countries.
Global burden of stroke has continued to increase in spite of dramatic declines in age-standardized incidence, prevalence, mortality rates and disability. Population growth and aging have played an important role in the observed increase in stroke burden.
全球疾病地图绘制是一种重要工具,可直观呈现不同地区和国家的卒中负担及其变化趋势。
展示1990 - 2013年全球缺血性卒中和出血性卒中的发病率、患病率、死亡率、伤残调整生命年(DALYs)和伤残生存年(YLDs)的地理分布模式及其变化趋势。
按照《2010年全球疾病负担(GBD)》的一般方法,并在方法上进行了若干重要改进,对卒中发病率、患病率、死亡率、DALYs和YLDs进行了估算。更新了死亡率数据(截至2014年4月)以及2013年以前的卒中发病率、患病率、病死率和严重程度数据。采用综合建模方法估算死亡情况。使用一个新的软件包DisMod-MR 2.0作为定制建模过程的一部分来估算YLDs。所有发病率均根据新的GBD全球人口估计数进行年龄标准化。所有估算值均计算了95%的不确定性区间。
1990年至2013年期间,年龄标准化发病率、死亡率、患病率以及DALYs/YLDs均有所下降。然而,在同一时期,全球所有国家受卒中影响的绝对人数大幅增加,这表明全球卒中负担持续上升。全球卒中负担存在显著的地理(国家和地区)差异,低收入和中等收入国家承担了大部分负担。
尽管年龄标准化发病率、患病率、死亡率和伤残率显著下降,但全球卒中负担仍在持续增加。人口增长和老龄化在观察到的卒中负担增加中发挥了重要作用。