Sibley A, Han K H, Abourached A, Lesmana L A, Makara M, Jafri W, Salupere R, Assiri A M, Goldis A, Abaalkhail F, Abbas Z, Abdou A, Al Braiki F, Al Hosani F, Al Jaberi K, Al Khatry M, Al Mulla M A, Al Quraishi H, Al Rifai A, Al Serkal Y, Alam A, Alavian S M, Alashgar H I, Alawadhi S, Al-Dabal L, Aldins P, Alfaleh F Z, Alghamdi A S, Al-Hakeem R, Aljumah A A, Almessabi A, Alqutub A N, Alswat K A, Altraif I, Alzaabi M, Andrea N, Babatin M A, Baqir A, Barakat M T, Bergmann O M, Bizri A R, Blach S, Chaudhry A, Choi M S, Diab T, Djauzi S, El Hassan E S, El Khoury S, Estes C, Fakhry S, Farooqi J I, Fridjonsdottir H, Gani R A, Ghafoor Khan A, Gheorghe L, Gottfredsson M, Gregorcic S, Gunter J, Hajarizadeh B, Hamid S, Hasan I, Hashim A, Horvath G, Hunyady B, Husni R, Jeruma A, Jonasson J G, Karlsdottir B, Kim D Y, Kim Y S, Koutoubi Z, Liakina V, Lim Y S, Löve A, Maimets M, Malekzadeh R, Matičič M, Memon M S, Merat S, Mokhbat J E, Mourad F H, Muljono D H, Nawaz A, Nugrahini N, Olafsson S, Priohutomo S, Qureshi H, Rassam P, Razavi H, Razavi-Shearer D, Razavi-Shearer K, Rozentale B, Sadik M, Saeed K, Salamat A, Sanai F M, Sanityoso Sulaiman A, Sayegh R A, Sharara A I, Siddiq M, Siddiqui A M, Sigmundsdottir G, Sigurdardottir B, Speiciene D, Sulaiman A, Sultan M A, Taha M, Tanaka J, Tarifi H, Tayyab G, Tolmane I, Ud Din M, Umar M, Valantinas J, Videčnik-Zorman J, Yaghi C, Yunihastuti E, Yusuf M A, Zuberi B F, Schmelzer J D
Center for Disease Analysis (CDA), Louisville, CO, USA.
Department of Internal Medicine, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea.
J Viral Hepat. 2015 Dec;22 Suppl 4:21-41. doi: 10.1111/jvh.12476.
The total number, morbidity and mortality attributed to viraemic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections change over time making it difficult to compare reported estimates from different years. Models were developed for 15 countries to quantify and characterize the viraemic population and forecast the changes in the infected population and the corresponding disease burden from 2014 to 2030. With the exception of Iceland, Iran, Latvia and Pakistan, the total number of viraemic HCV infections is expected to decline from 2014 to 2030, but the associated morbidity and mortality are expected to increase in all countries except for Japan and South Korea. In the latter two countries, mortality due to an ageing population will drive down prevalence, morbidity and mortality. On the other hand, both countries have already experienced a rapid increase in HCV-related mortality and morbidity. HCV-related morbidity and mortality are projected to increase between 2014 and 2030 in all other countries as result of an ageing HCV-infected population. Thus, although the total number of HCV countries is expected to decline in most countries studied, the associated disease burden is expected to increase. The current treatment paradigm is inadequate if large reductions in HCV-related morbidity and mortality are to be achieved.
丙型肝炎病毒（HCV）血症感染的总数、发病率和死亡率随时间变化，这使得不同年份报告的估计数难以比较。为15个国家建立了模型，以量化和描述HCV血症人群，并预测2014年至2030年感染人群的变化以及相应的疾病负担。除冰岛、伊朗、拉脱维亚和巴基斯坦外，预计2014年至2030年HCV血症感染总数将下降，但除日本和韩国外，所有国家的相关发病率和死亡率预计将上升。在后两个国家，人口老龄化导致的死亡率将降低患病率、发病率和死亡率。另一方面，这两个国家的HCV相关死亡率和发病率都已迅速上升。由于HCV感染人群老龄化，预计2014年至2030年所有其他国家的HCV相关发病率和死亡率都会上升。因此，尽管在所研究的大多数国家中，预计HCV感染总数会下降，但相关的疾病负担预计会增加。如果要大幅降低HCV相关的发病率和死亡率，目前的治疗模式是不够的。
