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模拟多种干预策略对控制口蹄疫的影响。

Modeling the Effects of Multiple Intervention Strategies on Controlling Foot-and-Mouth Disease.

作者信息

Mushayabasa Steady, Tapedzesa Gift

机构信息

Department of Mathematics, University of Zimbabwe, P.O. Box MP 167, Harare, Zimbabwe.

出版信息

Biomed Res Int. 2015;2015:584234. doi: 10.1155/2015/584234. Epub 2015 Oct 4.

Abstract

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a threat to economic security and infrastructure as well as animal health, in both developed and developing countries. We propose and analyze an optimal control problem where the control system is a mathematical model for FMD that incorporates vaccination and culling of infectious animals. The control functions represent the fraction of animals that are vaccinated during an outbreak, infectious symptomatic animals that are detected and culled, and infectious nonsymptomatic animals that are detected and culled. Our aim was to study how these control measures should be implemented for a certain time period, in order to reduce or eliminate FMD in the community, while minimizing the interventions implementation costs. A cost-effectiveness analysis is carried out, to compare the application of each one of the control measures, separately or in combination.

摘要

口蹄疫对发达国家和发展中国家的经济安全、基础设施以及动物健康都构成威胁。我们提出并分析了一个最优控制问题,其中控制系统是一个口蹄疫数学模型,该模型纳入了疫苗接种和对感染动物的扑杀。控制函数分别表示在疫情爆发期间接种疫苗的动物比例、被检测出并扑杀的有症状感染动物以及被检测出并扑杀的无症状感染动物。我们的目标是研究在特定时间段内应如何实施这些控制措施,以减少或消除社区中的口蹄疫,同时将干预措施的实施成本降至最低。我们进行了成本效益分析,以比较单独或组合应用每种控制措施的情况。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7ea9/4609519/94c277a4b0bf/BMRI2015-584234.001.jpg

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