Effect of meteorological factors on incidence of tuberculosis: A 15-year retrospective study based on Chinese medicine theory of five circuits and six qi.

OBJECTIVE

To analyze the correlations between the incidence of tuberculosis and meteorological factors over the same period and previous periods including 1, 2 and 3 years ago, defined according to the Chinese medicine theory of five circuits (Wu Yun) and six qi, to establish medical-meteorological forecast models for the Beijing area of China.

METHODS

Data regarding the incidence of tuberculosis between 1990 and 2004 were obtained from the Beijing Center for Disease Control and Prevention, and the data regarding the meteorological factors (including daily average temperatures, wind speeds, precipitations, relative humidities, vapor pressures and low cloud covers) between 1987 and 2004 were collected from the Beijing Meteorological Observatory and analyzed. Descriptive statistics and a back-propagation artificial neural network were adopted to analyze the data.

RESULTS

There were significant correlations between the incidence of tuberculosis and the meteorological factors in the corresponding year and previous years. Among these correlations, wind speed was the factor with the strongest influence on tuberculosis (the standardized significance was 100%). Additionally, all prediction models would successfully established, suggesting the use of a collection of meteorological factors spanning from three years ago to the present is superior to the use of single data.

CONCLUSIONS

The incidence of tuberculosis in Beijing area is correlated to meteorological factors in the current year and previous years, which verifies the practicality of the theory of five circuits and six qi.