Department of Basic Medicine, Beijing University of Chinese Medicine, Beijing 100029, China.
Chin J Integr Med. 2013 Mar;19(3):182-6. doi: 10.1007/s11655-012-1239-z. Epub 2012 Aug 18.
To explore the impact of meteorological factors on the outbreak of bacillary dysentery, so as to provide suggestions for disease prevention.
Based on the Chinese medicine theory of Yunqi, the descriptive statistics, single-factor correlation analysis and back-propagation artificial neural net-work were conducted using data on five basic meteorological factors and data on incidence of bacillary dysentery in Beijing, China, for the period 1970-2004.
The incidence of bacillary dysentery showed significant positive correlation relationship with the precipitation, relative humidity, vapor pressure, and temperature, respectively. The incidence of bacillary dysentery showed a negatively correlated relationship with the wind speed and the change trend of average wind speed. The results of medical-meteorological forecast model showed a relatively high accuracy rate.
There is a close relationship between the meteorological factors and the incidence of bacillary dysentery, but the contributions of which to the onset of bacillary dysentery are different to each other.
探讨气象因素对细菌性痢疾发病的影响，为疾病预防提供建议。
基于中医“云气”理论，采用 1970—2004 年北京市 5 项基本气象要素和细菌性痢疾发病率资料，进行描述性统计、单因素相关分析和反向传播人工神经网络分析。
细菌性痢疾发病率与降水量、相对湿度、水汽压和气温分别呈显著正相关关系，与风速呈负相关关系，与平均风速变化趋势呈负相关关系。医学气象预报模型的预测结果具有较高的准确率。
气象因素与细菌性痢疾发病率之间存在密切关系，但对细菌性痢疾发病的作用不尽相同。
