Yi Guihua, Zhang Tingbin
Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Science, Chengdu 610041, China.
College of Administrative Science, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu 610059, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2015 Oct 30;12(11):13886-900. doi: 10.3390/ijerph121113886.
The Tibetan Plateau is a key area for research on global environmental changes. During the past 50 years, the climate in the Siling Co lake area has become continuously warmer and wetter, which may have further caused the increase in Siling Co lake area. Based on the Siling Co lake area (2003 to 2013) and climate data acquired from the Xainza and Baingoin meteorological stations (covering 1966 to 2013), we analyzed the delayed responses of lake area changes to climate changes through grey relational analysis. The following results were obtained: (1) The Siling Co lake area exhibited a rapid expansion trend from 2003 to 2013. The lake area increased to 2318 km², with a growth ratio of 14.6% and an annual growth rate of 26.84 km²·year(-1); (2) The rate of air temperature increase was different in the different seasons. The rate in the cold season was about 0.41 °C per ten years and 0.32 °C in hot season. Precipitation evidently increased, with a change rate of 17.70 mm per ten years in the hot season and a slight increase with a change rate of 2.36 mm per ten years in the cold season. Pan evaporation exhibited evidently decreasing trends in both the hot and cold seasons, with rates of -33.35 and -14.84 mm per ten years, respectively; (3) An evident delayed response of lake area change to climate change is observed, with a delay time of approximately one to two years.
青藏高原是全球环境变化研究的关键区域。在过去50年里，色林错湖地区气候持续变暖和变湿，这可能进一步导致了色林错湖面积增加。基于色林错湖地区（2003年至2013年）以及从申扎和班戈气象站获取的气候数据（涵盖1966年至2013年），我们通过灰色关联分析，分析了湖泊面积变化对气候变化的滞后响应。得到以下结果：（1）2003年至2013年，色林错湖面积呈现快速扩张趋势。湖泊面积增加到2318平方千米，增长率为14.6%，年增长率为26.84平方千米·年⁻¹；（2）不同季节气温升高速率不同。寒冷季节速率约为每十年0.41℃，炎热季节为0.32℃。降水量明显增加，炎热季节变化速率为每十年17.70毫米，寒冷季节略有增加，变化速率为每十年2.36毫米。潘蒸发量在炎热和寒冷季节均呈现明显下降趋势，速率分别为每十年-33.35和-14.84毫米；（3）观察到湖泊面积变化对气候变化有明显的滞后响应，滞后时间约为一到两年。
