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因果中介分析中的G计算演示。

G-computation demonstration in causal mediation analysis.

作者信息

Wang Aolin, Arah Onyebuchi A

机构信息

Department of Epidemiology, Fielding School of Public Health, University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA), 650 Charles E. Young Drive South, Los Angeles, CA, 90095-1772, USA.

California Center for Population Research (CCPR), Los Angeles, CA, USA.

出版信息

Eur J Epidemiol. 2015 Oct;30(10):1119-27. doi: 10.1007/s10654-015-0100-z. Epub 2015 Nov 4.

Abstract

Recent work has considerably advanced the definition, identification and estimation of controlled direct, and natural direct and indirect effects in causal mediation analysis. Despite the various estimation methods and statistical routines being developed, a unified approach for effect estimation under different effect decomposition scenarios is still needed for epidemiologic research. G-computation offers such unification and has been used for total effect and joint controlled direct effect estimation settings, involving different types of exposure and outcome variables. In this study, we demonstrate the utility of parametric g-computation in estimating various components of the total effect, including (1) natural direct and indirect effects, (2) standard and stochastic controlled direct effects, and (3) reference and mediated interaction effects, using Monte Carlo simulations in standard statistical software. For each study subject, we estimated their nested potential outcomes corresponding to the (mediated) effects of an intervention on the exposure wherein the mediator was allowed to attain the value it would have under a possible counterfactual exposure intervention, under a pre-specified distribution of the mediator independent of any causes, or under a fixed controlled value. A final regression of the potential outcome on the exposure intervention variable was used to compute point estimates and bootstrap was used to obtain confidence intervals. Through contrasting different potential outcomes, this analytical framework provides an intuitive way of estimating effects under the recently introduced 3- and 4-way effect decomposition. This framework can be extended to complex multivariable and longitudinal mediation settings.

摘要

近期的研究工作极大地推进了因果中介分析中受控直接效应、自然直接效应和间接效应的定义、识别及估计。尽管正在开发各种估计方法和统计程序,但流行病学研究仍需要一种在不同效应分解情形下进行效应估计的统一方法。G计算提供了这种统一方法,并且已用于总效应和联合受控直接效应估计设置,涉及不同类型的暴露和结局变量。在本研究中,我们在标准统计软件中使用蒙特卡罗模拟,展示了参数化G计算在估计总效应的各个组成部分方面的效用,包括(1)自然直接效应和间接效应,(2)标准和随机受控直接效应,以及(3)参考和中介交互效应。对于每个研究对象,我们估计了他们的嵌套潜在结局,这些结局对应于干预对暴露的(中介)效应,其中在预先指定的与任何原因无关的中介分布下,或者在固定的受控值下,允许中介达到其在可能的反事实暴露干预下会具有的值。将潜在结局对暴露干预变量进行最终回归以计算点估计值,并使用自助法获得置信区间。通过对比不同的潜在结局,这个分析框架提供了一种直观的方法来估计在最近引入的三向和四向效应分解下的效应。这个框架可以扩展到复杂的多变量和纵向中介设置。

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