Liu Wen-Cheng, Chan Wen-Ting
Department of Civil and Disaster Prevention Engineering, National United University, Miao-Li, 36063, Taiwan.
Taiwan Typhoon and Flood Research Institute, National Applied Research Laboratories, Taipei, 10093, Taiwan.
Environ Monit Assess. 2015 Dec;187(12):728. doi: 10.1007/s10661-015-4959-7. Epub 2015 Nov 6.
Climate change is one of the key factors affecting the future microbiological water quality in rivers and tidal estuaries. A coupled 3D hydrodynamic and fecal coliform transport model was developed and applied to the Danshuei River estuarine system for predicting the influences of climate change on microbiological water quality. The hydrodynamic and fecal coliform model was validated using observational salinity and fecal coliform distributions. According to the analyses of the statistical error, predictions of the salinity and the fecal coliform concentration from the model simulation quantitatively agreed with the observed data. The validated model was then applied to predict the fecal coliform contamination as a result of climate change, including the change of freshwater discharge and the sea level rise. We found that the reduction of freshwater discharge under climate change scenarios resulted in an increase in the fecal coliform concentration. The sea level rise would decrease fecal coliform distributions because both the water level and the water volume increased. A reduction in freshwater discharge has a negative impact on the fecal coliform concentration, whereas a rising sea level has a positive influence on the fecal coliform contamination. An appropriate strategy for the effective microbiological management in tidal estuaries is required to reveal the persistent trends of climate in the future.
气候变化是影响河流和潮汐河口未来微生物水质的关键因素之一。开发了一个三维水动力和粪大肠菌群输运耦合模型，并将其应用于淡水河河口系统，以预测气候变化对微生物水质的影响。利用观测到的盐度和粪大肠菌群分布对水动力和粪大肠菌群模型进行了验证。根据统计误差分析，模型模拟得到的盐度和粪大肠菌群浓度预测值与观测数据在数量上吻合良好。然后，应用经过验证的模型预测气候变化导致的粪大肠菌群污染，包括淡水流量变化和海平面上升。我们发现，气候变化情景下淡水流量的减少导致粪大肠菌群浓度增加。海平面上升会减少粪大肠菌群的分布，因为水位和水量都增加了。淡水流量的减少对粪大肠菌群浓度有负面影响，而海平面上升对粪大肠菌群污染有正面影响。需要一种有效的潮汐河口微生物管理策略，以揭示未来气候的持续趋势。
