Gray William K, Dewhurst Felicity, Dewhurst Matthew J, Orega Golda, Kissima John, Chaote Paul, Walker Richard W
Northumbria Healthcare NHS Foundation Trust, North Tyneside General Hospital, North Shields, UK.
Northumbria Healthcare NHS Foundation Trust, North Tyneside General Hospital, North Shields, UK; Institute of Health and Society, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK.
Arch Gerontol Geriatr. 2016 Jan-Feb;62:36-42. doi: 10.1016/j.archger.2015.10.008. Epub 2015 Oct 31.
There are few data on mortality rates in the general elderly living in sub-Saharan Africa. We aimed to detail three-year mortality rates in a population of rural community-dwelling older adults in northern Tanzania.
We performed a community-based study of 2232 people aged 70 years and over living in Hai district, Tanzania. At baseline, participants underwent clinical assessment for disability, neurological disorders, hypertension, atrial fibrillation and memory problems. At three-year follow-up mortality data were collected. Mortality rates were compared to UK estimates.
At follow-up, data were available for 1873 subjects (83.9%). Of those, 208 (11.1%, 95% CI 9.7-12.5) had died. The age-standardised mortality rate was 10.2% (95% CI 8.8-11.6). Age-standardised mortality rates were lower than estimated for the UK (13.9%). In Cox regression analysis, greater age, higher levels of functional disability, use of a walking aid, subjective report of memory problems, being severely underweight and being normotensive were significant predictors of mortality.
Those who survive to old age in Tanzania appear to have relatively low mortality rates. Physical and cognitive disabilities were strongly associated with mortality risk in this elderly community-dwelling population. The association between blood pressure and mortality merits further study.
关于撒哈拉以南非洲普通老年人死亡率的数据很少。我们旨在详细了解坦桑尼亚北部农村社区居住的老年人群体的三年死亡率。
我们对坦桑尼亚海伊区2232名70岁及以上的人群进行了一项基于社区的研究。在基线时，参与者接受了残疾、神经系统疾病、高血压、心房颤动和记忆问题的临床评估。在三年随访时收集死亡率数据。将死亡率与英国的估计值进行比较。
在随访时，有1873名受试者（83.9%）的数据可用。其中，208人（11.1%，95%可信区间9.7-12.5）死亡。年龄标准化死亡率为10.2%（95%可信区间8.8-11.6）。年龄标准化死亡率低于英国的估计值（13.9%）。在Cox回归分析中，年龄较大、功能残疾程度较高、使用助行器、记忆问题的主观报告、严重体重不足和血压正常是死亡率的重要预测因素。
在坦桑尼亚活到老年的人似乎死亡率相对较低。在这个社区居住的老年人群体中，身体和认知残疾与死亡风险密切相关。血压与死亡率之间的关联值得进一步研究。
