MRC Integrative Epidemiology Unit at the University of Bristol , Bristol, UK ; UK Centre for Tobacco and Alcohol Studies, School of Experimental Psychology , University of Bristol , Bristol, UK.
New Zealand Institute for Advanced Study , Massey University , Palmerston North, New Zealand ; Wissenschaftskolleg zu Berlin , Berlin, Germany.
R Soc Open Sci. 2015 Oct 28;2(10):150287. doi: 10.1098/rsos.150287. eCollection 2015 Oct.
The 2014 Research Excellence Framework (REF2014) was conducted to assess the quality of research carried out at higher education institutions in the UK over a 6 year period. However, the process was criticized for being expensive and bureaucratic, and it was argued that similar information could be obtained more simply from various existing metrics. We were interested in whether a prediction market on the outcome of REF2014 for 33 chemistry departments in the UK would provide information similar to that obtained during the REF2014 process. Prediction markets have become increasingly popular as a means of capturing what is colloquially known as the 'wisdom of crowds', and enable individuals to trade 'bets' on whether a specific outcome will occur or not. These have been shown to be successful at predicting various outcomes in a number of domains (e.g. sport, entertainment and politics), but have rarely been tested against outcomes based on expert judgements such as those that formed the basis of REF2014.
2014 年科研卓越框架（REF2014）旨在评估英国高等教育机构在六年期间内开展的研究质量。然而，该过程因昂贵且官僚主义而受到批评，有人认为可以从各种现有指标中更简单地获得类似信息。我们感兴趣的是，针对英国 33 个化学系的 REF2014 结果进行的预测市场是否会提供与 REF2014 过程中获得的信息相似的信息。预测市场作为一种获取通俗意义上的“群体智慧”的手段，已经越来越受欢迎，使个人能够就特定结果是否会发生进行“投注”交易。这些在许多领域（如体育、娱乐和政治）的各种结果预测中已经被证明是成功的，但很少针对基于专家判断的结果进行测试，例如构成 REF2014 基础的那些结果。
