Berning Carl C, Schlueter Elmar
Department of Political Science, Johannes Gutenberg University of Mainz, Jakob-Welder-Weg 12, 55128 Mainz, Germany.
Institute for Sociology, Justus Liebig University Giessen, Karl-Glöckner-Str. 21E, 35394, Giessen, Germany.
Soc Sci Res. 2016 Jan;55:83-93. doi: 10.1016/j.ssresearch.2015.09.003. Epub 2015 Sep 30.
Existing cross-sectional research considers citizens' preferences for radical right-wing populist (RRP) parties to be centrally driven by their perception that immigrants threaten the well-being of the national ingroup. However, longitudinal evidence for this relationship is largely missing. To remedy this gap in the literature, we developed three competing hypotheses to investigate: (a) whether perceived group threat is temporally prior to RRP party preferences, (b) whether RRP party preferences are temporally prior to perceived group threat, or (c) whether the relation between perceived group threat and RRP party preferences is bidirectional. Based on multiwave panel data from the Netherlands for the years 2008-2013 and from Germany spanning the period 1994-2002, we examined the merits of these hypotheses using autoregressive cross-lagged structural equation models. The results show that perceptions of threatened group interests precipitate rather than follow citizens' preferences for RRP parties. These findings help to clarify our knowledge of the dynamic structure underlying RRP party preferences.
现有的横断面研究认为，公民对极右翼民粹主义（RRP）政党的偏好主要是由他们认为移民威胁到本国群体福祉的观念所驱动。然而，这种关系的纵向证据在很大程度上是缺失的。为了弥补文献中的这一空白，我们提出了三个相互竞争的假设来进行研究：（a）感知到的群体威胁在时间上是否先于对RRP政党的偏好，（b）对RRP政党的偏好在时间上是否先于感知到的群体威胁，或者（c）感知到的群体威胁与对RRP政党的偏好之间的关系是否是双向的。基于荷兰2008 - 2013年以及德国1994 - 2002年的多波面板数据，我们使用自回归交叉滞后结构方程模型检验了这些假设的合理性。结果表明，对受威胁群体利益的认知促成了公民对RRP政党的偏好，而不是相反。这些发现有助于澄清我们对RRP政党偏好背后动态结构的认识。
