Cancer Res Treat. 2003 Feb;35(1):35-51. doi: 10.4143/crt.2003.35.1.35.
The aims were to evaluate the main risk factors (RFs) of breast cancer and to estimate the individual disease-probability from combinations of RFs in Korean female.
We conducted case-control study of 1, 687 incident cases of invasive carcinoma and 1, 238 controls during 1996~2000. A breast cancer disease-probability model was established by a general modeling process using a multivariate logistic regression model, which included the main Korean RFs and synergistic interaction-terms.
The main Korean RFs selected were age, family history of second relatives, BMI, age at first full term pregnancy, breast-feeding, and a special test on the breasts. Two synergisms were observed between age and breast-feeding, and between special test and age at first fullterm pregnancy. The disease-probability and model are shown in Table 4, and Appendix 1.
The availability of previous Western models was limited for Korean female due to the differences inhazard-rates and the characteristics of breast cancer between Asian and Western females. Due to limited basic data, i.e. incidence, hazard-rate and cancer-cohorts, the developing-probability of breast cancer for Korean females was not calculated. Therefore, the disease-probability was calculated instead. This approach might be more beneficial for Koreans, and help in the decision- making for regular screening or hospital visit-interval, counseling in breast-cancer clinics, prescribing high-risk population, and in educating for primary prevention, although it over-estimates the relative probability compared to the developing-probability and the 65% predictive validity.
评估乳腺癌的主要危险因素（RFs），并估计韩国女性中 RFs 组合对个体疾病的概率。
我们进行了一项病例对照研究，纳入了 1996 年至 2000 年间 1687 例浸润性乳腺癌病例和 1238 例对照。使用多变量逻辑回归模型的一般建模过程建立乳腺癌疾病概率模型，该模型包括主要的韩国 RFs 和协同作用项。
选择的主要韩国 RFs 是年龄、二级亲属的家族史、BMI、首次足月妊娠年龄、母乳喂养和乳房特殊检查。年龄和母乳喂养之间以及特殊检查和首次足月妊娠年龄之间观察到两个协同作用。表 4 和附录 1 显示了疾病概率和模型。
由于亚洲和西方女性的危险率和乳腺癌特征存在差异，之前的西方模型在韩国女性中可用性有限。由于基本数据有限，即发病率、危险率和癌症队列，因此未计算韩国女性乳腺癌的发病概率。因此，计算了疾病概率。这种方法可能对韩国人更有益，可以帮助做出定期筛查或医院就诊间隔、乳腺癌诊所咨询、高危人群处方和初级预防教育的决策，尽管与发病概率相比，它会高估相对概率和 65%的预测有效性。
