Quam Mikkel B, Sessions October, Kamaraj Uma Sangumathi, Rocklöv Joacim, Wilder-Smith Annelies
Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2016 Feb;94(2):409-412. doi: 10.4269/ajtmh.15-0468. Epub 2015 Dec 28.
Despite Japan's temperate climate, a dengue outbreak occurred in Tokyo for the first time in over 70 years in 2014. We dissected this dengue outbreak based on phylogenetic analysis, travel interconnectivity, and environmental drivers for dengue epidemics. Comparing the available dengue virus 1 (DENV1) E gene sequence from this outbreak with 3,282 unique DENV1 sequences in National Center for Biotechnology Information suggested that the DENV might have been imported from China, Indonesia, Singapore, or Vietnam. With travelers arriving into Japan, Guangzhou (China) may have been the source of DENV introduction, given that Guangzhou also reported a large-scale dengue outbreak in 2014. Coinciding with the 2014 outbreak, Tokyo's climate conditions permitted the amplification of Aedes vectors and the annual peak of vectorial capacity. Given suitable vectors and climate conditions in addition to increasing interconnectivity with endemic areas of Asia, Tokyo's 2014 outbreak did not come as a surprise and may foretell more to come.
尽管日本气候温和,但2014年东京70多年来首次发生登革热疫情。我们基于系统发育分析、旅行互联性以及登革热流行的环境驱动因素对此次登革热疫情进行了剖析。将此次疫情中可用的登革热病毒1型(DENV1)E基因序列与美国国立生物技术信息中心的3282条独特DENV1序列进行比较后发现,该DENV可能是从中国、印度尼西亚、新加坡或越南输入的。考虑到有旅行者抵达日本,鉴于广州在2014年也报告了大规模登革热疫情,所以广州可能是DENV的引入源头。与2014年的疫情同时发生的是,东京的气候条件有利于伊蚊媒介的繁殖以及媒介能力年度高峰的出现。除了与亚洲流行地区的互联性不断增加外,鉴于有适宜的媒介和气候条件,东京2014年的疫情并不意外,且可能预示着未来还会有更多疫情发生。